if the MM wants to kill the recent rally most likely we will be pin at $440-$445 if they still want to fuel the next leg to $480 before April Opex then we could be pin at $450 - $455 ...... what is confusing to me is why was the volume so low yesterday, mostly sellers no buyers so we could end at $440 as you mentioned.
If we're lucky. Max pain is still showing 460 based on market close last night. However, options trading volume is huge this morning, with bad news and the short week, holders are understandably running for cover. But who knows where that will lead. Hope we may see a turn-around in the PPS before the day's over. Otherwise I think we'll see a 455 max pain and maybe a 450 pin.