1. Notice the H&S formation from 08/10/2012 - 10/18/2012. Left shoulder 08/15/2012 $630 - $676, head 09/11/2012 - 09/26/2012 $660 to $700 to $665, right shoulder 09/26/2012 - 10/04/2012 $660 - $671 level.
2. Currently, inverse H&S forming: inverse left shoulder 01/23/2013 - 02/08/2013 $514 to $474, inverse head 02/11/2013 - 03/22/2013 $470 to $420 to $462 to inverse right shoulder being formed 03/25/2013 - current $463 to$427 to $500 probably. Once it goes above $500, it should go to $600.
When I saw #1 forming last year, I ran as far away from this stock as possible. When I saw the inverse right shoulder forming, I started to take a position. From my experience, about 80% of inverse H&S come true and about 70% of H&S formation come true. Aside from all the great news coming soon, that's all you really need to know to invest.
Elliott Wave Principles are not very reliable. H&S formation and inverse H&S formation are, by far, the most reliable indicators because everybody believes in it 100%, and so when it starts forming, the best traders either dump stocks (when they see H&S forming) and buy aggressively when they see inverse H&S formation. For reference, look at the inverse H&S on DECK (inverse left shoulder $48 - $35, inverse head ($35 to $28 to $35) and inverse right shoulder ($40 to $35). I saw this coming on DECK from a mile away and bought when I saw the inverse right shoulder forming.
TA is waste of time, and fundamental analyses is also waste of time for short term, right now pure manipulation with psychology for option premium and future premium, until SEC don't work honestly, it will continue as it is.
A stock can be in different trends at different time frames. For example, a stock can be in long term down trend in a multiyear weekly chart but in short term up trend in a daily chart. It doesn't mean either one is wrong. Buy you can't make long term trade using short term timeframe or short term trade using long term timeframes. Too many people make that mistake and think TA doesn't work.
From a TA point of view I agree that what you have described is potentially bullish for AAPL stock. The RSI for AAPL stock has been trading between 0 and 60 for the last six months. In the past few trading days the RSI has rolled over to the downside from about the 50 level. I consider this to be bearish for AAPL Stock. I also feel that if the stock market corrects you will see AAPL stock fall below the current $419 support level. We will find out soon enough which way the is going to go.
You're wrong on that one. The right shoulder in 09/2012 barely registered (small hump, not a large right shoulder), but in my eyes, that clearly was a right shoulder, which is why I concluded that H&S was forming back then. I looked at this chart and I can tell you that inverse right shoulder is forming in a big way.
From My Experience Ta Works 50% Of Time You Can Increase % With Fundamentals And News, I Also Bailed On Aapl In 580'S Because All 3 Were Lining Up ... The Sp Index HS Has Failed Repeatedly Because Of News And QE...
It depends on what you mean by "works". Too many people use TA for absolute predictions like where the bottom will be, what the price will be next week, or where and when the price will peak. If they use it this way they will be disappointed.
TA can't do price predictions, nothing can. But it is very good at showing what the current trend is and when the trend is likely to change. It is said in trading: trend is your friend. It is very true. If you can enter a trade when a trend is likely developing, get out of the trade early to minimize losses if the trend fail to develop, ride the trend for as long as possible if it did develop, and exit the trade when the trend changes, you can make a lot of money. TA gives you exactly that. If you use it correctly, TA's success rate is much higher than 50%.
TA works 80% of the time. It's up to the viewer to view it correctly. I saw H&S formation coming 5 months ago - it was just too obvious. Now, I see the inverse H&S forming - it's just as obvious. Remember what Warren Buffett said - be fearful when everybody is greedy and greedy when everybody is fearful. I think this one's a slam dunk over the next 6 months. You can leave your money in the bank and make 1%, and even if there's a 5% chance that AAPL doesn't go up for 1 year, at least you've made 2.5% from dividends. Heck, utility company like DUK yields 4.2% - talk about overvaluation!