NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Apple is the most valuable and influential stock in global stock markets based on its market capitalization and its trading volume.
$419 is Apple's recent low and represents a clear technical line in the sand that stretches all the way back to two ascending peaks in late 2011.
A violation of the $419 level suggests that Apple will may move down to approximately $350 before it finds any substantial support; $400 may provide a first level of psychological support.
Until now, Apple has been falling due to factors that are specific to the stock. However, I believe most of these idiosyncratic and non-diversifiable factors have already largely been priced into Apple's stock price based on the current state of information.
Therefore, at this point, AAPL becomes a leading tell for the entire stock market. It is important to understand that mutual funds, ETFs that and index futures managers that need to liquidate positions will first liquidate the largest and most liquid holdings in order to reduce equity exposure. This means, that in a general market decline, AAPL's stock will tend to be a leading indicator that will act with a high beta to a fast-moving market.
AAPPL never really capitulated. I think this earning will get it done. Below $400 and then blue sky.. I think we will go to $390 after earnings. I want to see really huge volume to flush out still all the overweight hold out. I personally lost well in the 6 digits figure from Oct to Dec when I finally woke up and gave up. I waited way too long after below $650 but at least I did not hold below $500