Some of the naïve longs on this board seem to think if Apple sells a gazillion iPhones, iPads, iPods and Macs that everything is AOK. What they fail to recognize is that none of this counts if sales and margins do no exceed previous quarters. Sales are shrinking due to competition from Samsung, GOOG, Nokia and other players. Smartphone market is getting saturated by not only competitors but with cheap Chinese knockoffs. Margins are shrinking because people prefer iPhone 4S over iPhone 5 and iPad mini over reg iPad. Also, there are no new catalysts to drive stock up. WWDC, iRadio, iOS 7 all duds. This fall will only have product refreshes which will most likely disappoint and will not move needle. On top of all that Apple is coming up what probably will be its worst earnings report in recent history. Long AAPL? Good luck!! Cya at 385.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The stock has dropped from $700 to $400.... The stock trades at a single digit multiple.... The balance sheet is pristine.... They borrowed money at all time low rates and are now retiring (buying back) equity.... They have increased the dividend and now yield 3% on their common stock, higher than the 10 yr treas.....
My point, what you say is repeated everyday in the financial media..... Is it in the price? I think so... Will the equity begin to look ahead at what might be coming? I think so....
Bears at this level sound as loud as bulls did at $700....
The other huge factor is that competition is growing rapidly. There are new smartphone producers every couple months and new product launches every month. Every single new product from a competitor takes market share away from aapl which basically results in less sales and less profit. Thats why aapl has stack piles of inventory they cant move. Its only going to get worse. As you pointed out they have no new exciting products that would make any kind of difference like past years.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
QCOM says that Chinese manufacturers are turning out new smartphone models every 30 days. This is killing Samsung as well as AAPL. The misinformed longs seem to think that Samsung's dwindling sales is a good thing when in fact it impacts AAPL too.
You are going under the assumption all of these "problems" is shorts' secret weapon and the drop from $700 to $400 is NOT enough. More importantly, the one that really sits in the control seat, Apple, is doing NOTHING about it. Yes, there are competitions. Yes, it won't go up tomorrow. And yes, $10 up and down here and there gets call & put players' heart beats up. But, at the end of the day Apple is still in the driver seat. Today if Apple is not making any money the company still worth 'something'. And I'll bet Apple is not sitting still. Long term, yes more than couple months, I see this is just a bottoming out just like back at the end of 2008 and it's getting ready for a huge run. So enjoy shorting while you can, but don't be blind sided by all the bashing and forget the company is actually got values and they're in the driver seat. I don't think it will ever get to $300.
We will see, won't we??
Just one more little note. When a company goes from a growth company to a value company. The lower margins and earnings are factored in. That's why they call it a value stock or company. Apple will pay out about 3 percent in addition to whatever growth you get from the stock. If China rules in-favor of Apple, it could cross that thrush hold back into growth again. Give those crooked analyst a chance to fill their pockets with crooked money, and you get a lot of strong buys. Just a thought...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The trouble with your argument is now that interest rates are rising, investors are leaving value companies in droves for something safer. Sort of puts Apple in a lose, lose situation doesn't it? I think the China ship has sailed btw.
You make several good points! It's just all that is common knowledge. This is the same song and dance they've been playing in the media driving the stock down to the current level. This has been a way of life for those controlling Billions to pick up great companies on the cheap. I can't count the number of companies that I've caught off the bounce after the game was over.
My point being, what if for some chance, sales pick-up overseas in China among other countries? Also, why did Apple list under their press statements that they needed some 100 to 200 million phones for their upcoming release? One more thing, just to address margins, if they go after the other carriers with a low cost line of phones ( Which is also common knowledge ) . What's to keep them from adding those Billions to the bottom line? China is under massive pressure to let the US in. Why wouldn't Apple be the first?
BTW: I was short Apple from 600's to where I covered @ 457. So I understand valuations. I just don't think all the mitigating factors have been brought to trial? I'm Changing to Strong Buy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy