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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • jesterbunk jesterbunk Jun 27, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

    Last 90 days, analyst estimates for Q are down 21%

    From $9.38 to $7.41, and the stock has tanked.

    In the same time, AMZN's are down from $0.22 to $0.06, and the stock has hit new highs.

    As for future promises, two years ago analysts expected $5 from AMZN this year. They now expect $1.30. And it hits new highs. AAPL probably made more cash this June that AMZN has made ever.

    I just don't understand the amount of negativity AAPL gets when other companies get a pass over and over for broken promises and miserable earnings and margins.

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    • I suspect that APPL is suffering from many of its individual (not institutional) shareholders being far to concentrated in a single stock rather than being truly diversified. This makes them much more vulnerable to fear/emotional selling as the price drops and creates a vicious cycle on the downside and overshooting true value. It certainly seems that it is a bargain at this price. With no debt, tons of cash, strong market position and reputation in all of its markets, and a pretty attractive P/E (particularly when you account for cash and no debt) it looks to be one of the better values in the market. A new investor could start averaging in and do quite well over 2-4 year timeframe even with no growth. However, pretty tough to accept if your average cost basis is over $400 and you have to watch it stay flat or drop another 10-20% on momentum/fear. Good luck.

 
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