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  • buffetmunger buffetmunger Jul 5, 2013 5:58 AM Flag

    Economists said even if June payrolls come in weaker than expected, it would probably not stop the Fed from curtailing purchases later this year.

     

    Economists said even if June payrolls come in weaker than expected, it would probably not stop the Fed from curtailing purchases later this year.

    "It will force them to reconsider the size and not necessarily the timing of any tapering," said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York. "My view is tapering is essentially baked into the cake."

    Twenty-eight of 60 economists polled by Reuters in late June said they expect the Fed to begin dialing back its purchases in September, with most expecting the program to end by June 2014.

    The majority also forecast the Fed initially would cut purchases by $20 billion a month.

    A batch of economic data, including housing, manufacturing and auto sales, have general been consistent with the Fed's views of diminished downside risks to the economic outlook.

    However, debt problems in Europe and slowing growth in China are hampering export growth.

    The recent signals from Bernanke that a start date for reducing bond purchases is approaching triggered a global selloff in stock and bond markets, which have come to rely on the Fed as a steady source of demand for financial assets. Interest rates on everything from U.S. Treasury debt to home mortgage loans moved sharply higher, threatening to curtail credit for consumers and businesses.

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