Apple is down when the market is up. I am not very seasoned in this game, but I have most of my $$ in a call option with a $430 strike for Aug 17th. My "gut" is that Apple is going to rebound from the $390 lows again for a bit. I understand the skepticism of the market reacting to Samsung and HTC's disappointing results, but:
1) iPhone has trounced these two companies forever in market share
2) Apple "news" of an iWatch patent that will spur a multimillion dollar payday to loyal iFans and non apple peeps alike.Case in Point, the Pebble Watch received 10 million and only asked for 100k"
3) "Rumors" of a slew of new products coming this year
4) TWC deal to come (slight I know, but an increase in the realization of the potential Apple TV by Apple
5) Hiring of new "well respected" personnel for retail
All of these points "should" point to a huge gain here. Apple is making adjustments for the future.
I don't understand why they are down.
Any thoughts. I have bitten through two fingernails here.
Phenomenally risky to put "most" of your $$ in a short term call option, as short term noise can wipe out your position even if the long term company situation looks good. Samsung and HTC are the front and center story today. Stocks's are influenced by three levels: Market (e.g. global / U.S. geo-political-economic stuff), Sector (e.g just what you are seeing here w/ Samsung and HTC developments), and Company (e.g. Apple specific stuff - no particular developments today).
So where do you go without the crystal ball? There is no way to achieve what I need for my family without success in capital gain. Options or me have been hit and miss, but long term ownership is almost riskier in some cases.
I honestly do not know how to play it. Regardless of the books I've read or movers and shakers I know , it seems that the market is the only place that offers this.
I am sick that I put all the money in the option and it's down, but on the flip side, I would not have been greedy if it went up. 10-15% gain and I would have been out.
Sick my friends
Apple is sending a lot of signals that things are going to be strong in the second half for the stock. iWatch, new products, China Mobile. Apple TV, stock purchase, dividends and possibly more.
The 52 week range has $700+ in in and a stock like Apple which is bring in near $50 billion in annual cash flow has some floor. The market is forward looking and should give them some benefit of doubt given their strong retail branding and ability to generate sales in product areas others can only dream of.
A recover to $450+ is on the cards this year and I believe Apple will have time until end of the year to show growth from new products. If not next year sure this can be lower, but i simply don't see that happening with so much rumored to be coming soon (few months).
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Don't take any advice from this board. Most of the posters are pumpers and bashers. You already have one such reply. You have to do your homework - your own research and adopt your own system. Going by gut rarely makes you money. Buying out of the money calls is statistically very risky (hence the reward). But most people lose money on OTM options. ITM offers lower risk and lower reward. I never buy and hold an option. I use them for trades only. And I only look for small percentage gains and get out. I could be unimaginably rich if I always bought and sold well. I don't and I'm not. But I have learned how to consistently make money trading options, not holding them. But as I say, don't listen to advice on this board. Good luck
Quite a simplistic point of view. Not a surprise that after all the Samsung hype it would go down. Looking at their phones, with the bloat wear, multiple phones with the same model number and the way they report their sales one can not use them to forecast the market trend.
You need to do is look at the satisfaction numbers to see where the trend is going...
I kind of see the point, but Apple is not just a phone maker. people are buying more macs, ipads, etc...
I still don't see why it is hovering in the negative with apple's announcements of "new products to come" Doesn't the market trade on future growth?