You'll find your answer by visiting an Apple retail store or outlet. From my personal observation, the number of potential customers in these outlets is less than half of what it was a year ago. So, what do you think is the best way to go, long or short? This is not a trick question and you don't even have to be a grade school graduate to know the answer.
1. Profits are declining year over year
2. Margins have been going down
3.Market share for iPhone and iPad has been going down
4. Price is over 100 points off the bottom. Something is wrong here.
Well the bulls say the stock is cheap, blah, blah blah. "Great new products, someday". Show me a low PE stock. I will show you a dog. As long as earnings are declining no reason to own it. So simple a third grader can understand.
The stock may drop again, but there is too much positive news that could come out to short long-term here in my opinion. Icahn's number crunching makes sense for a high level calculation. An increased buyback could be announced. I think it's fairly evident there will be no iTv or iWatch this year, but both should be announcement within the next year I suspect (one will be at a minimum). The new iPhone could exceed expectations since no one is expecting a revolutionary product. A iPad mini with retina display should increase sales in the segment significantly during holidays. Cook continues to court China aggressively which leads me to believe China Mobile deal is close, especially with news that Apple is working on a phone for China's network. A cheaper phone will increase sales at the cost of margin though. I think market share increase will outweigh margin decrease due to Apple ecosystem revenue increase from new customers.