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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • bag_and_hold_investing bag_and_hold_investing Oct 5, 2013 7:25 AM Flag

    Extremely Frustrating Holding AAPL, Isn't It?

    FB and other stocks with astronomical or nonextistent P/E are up huge. Meanwhile, AAPL breaks its own record for phones sold and it has no effect on the price. In fact, the analysts (in their never-ending quest to never be wrong) doubt the numbers. Yet an Icahn tweet can move the needle. From a fundamentals standpoint, none of this makes any sense whatsoever.

    So right about now is when a lot of people will start selling. They'll give up and chase TSLA FB, and others. And that is exactly when AAPL will turn. The charts and fundamentals are saying that the bottom for AAPL is somewhere around here (give or take 10%). The price action reminds me of early 2009 when the stock traded in the 80s-90's before its relentless move higher. A blowout quarter next month, coupled with China Mobile, and some progress on a new product (TV or watch; watch looks like a possible game-changer) should finally move the needle. That or everything we've learned about valuing a stock means nothing any more.

    Until then, it's hedge fund hell. Collect the dividend and wait while HFT swings us back and forth endlessly.

    Frustrating, to say the least. Yet AAPL - the company,the brand, the innovation, and the collosal cash pile - are still around and going nowhere. That, in and of itself, is worth the long-term investment.

    (Note: All of the above doesn't take into account the nimrods on Capitol Hill crashing the market like 2008.)

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    • seriously, can you be as stupid as you seem? stop whining. aapl is just doing fine. it's the market that has been unpredictable. markets, by nature, are... duh!? don't be a clown shoe, ok?

    • Holding AAPL was the most frustrating ticker in my portfolio until I started selling covered calls, closing them on dips, selling, cover on dip, rinse repeat. It's not making for a 3x bagger, but at least it brings some $$$ in on top of the dividend. The premium for the calls at the exit point I established when I took my original position ends up being pretty good $. AAPL's day will come, if they can come up with a new growth product. Until then, they print cash like a utility company, and that's not a bad thing, I reckon.

      • 1 Reply to derp0370
      • This is actually really sound advice for those with margin accounts. The recent run up was probably a great chance to sell covered calls. However the dips are getting shallower for AAPL. Trendlines are looking up. Selling covered calls with a range of $550 or so might have the stock called away on a possible run to $600. One thing is for sure, if AAPL does start to head higher and the hedgies jump in, they will chase momentum much higher.

    • tesla actually lose money every year. they are high end cars that is owned by a less than 1% of the population. they have more competition than apple. toyata, gm, nissan, mercedes, honda, bmw isn't sitting on the butts doing nothing. don't really make sense.

    • How ridiculous. Some idiot short thinks giving thumbs down with multiple ID's will make any difference on either the stock price or the opinion of anyone who reads these messages.

      This board has truly been taken over by really sad losers (think creepskinner) with way too much time on their hands.

    • You have to buy aapl with a minimum of 3 to 5 year horizons given their new product cycle and the fact that it went straight up from the 100's to 700 in a short time. The big correction was inevitable as so many institutions were still in at the top and slightly below. AAPL will hit new highs in the next two years. If you want a meteor stock its not aapl. They had their parabolic run.

      • 2 Replies to ditzil
      • Agreed. Patience is the operative word as APPL mends itself technically.

        Yet if AAPL were fairly valued with the rest of the market, and a P/E of 16 or so, it would trade around $650-$700 right now. That is the frustration, I believe. A year ago AAPL could do no wrong. Now it can do no right.

        The sick irony is that if AAPL did shave off another $100 or so in price, it really would be the perfect time for AAPL to add to the buyback. But then that would mean that there is something seriously wrong with the company.

        Again, the ironies, inconsistencies, and frustrations abound for AAPL longs.

      • the correction was because of massively overweight retail

        join Gathrz, it's where we all will wind up... see userid directly above for address

    • on the other hand, another earnings miss could take it under 300.

      • 4 Replies to enter_new_alisa
      • Alisa, Tim Cook has already said their earning will be at the high end. The chances of them missing in October is ZERO. If Apple goes below 300 with its current Cash position, I will sell everything I own and buy Apple Stocks. That would ut their PE at less than 3 Ex Cash!

      • Make that under 400.

      • Earnings miss - HA. Under 300 - HA. What a pea brain.

        And to think investors are chasing Tesla and FB when they are at all time highs and ready to a fools play.

        bag_and_hold_investing is correct though in that Apple is ready to turn higher as investors flock to quality companies in time of uncertainty. Especially companies with 150 billion in cash holding and a long line of new products coming this year and next.

      • Fair enough. It could definitely head under $400 if earnings were bad. However, at $300 it would have a dividend yield of 4%. Hard for institutional investors to pass on that, so it's doubtful it would get so low. Besides, AAPL could take the company private at those prices.

        Yet with the continued share buyback, AAPL should be able to make numbers or even beat like they did last quarter. Also, iRadio is a new, albeit minor, revenue driver. Curious to see how it will impact iTunes sales. Ostensibly it should be a positive overall for the services component of the company.

        AAPL already guided higher for the quarter to revenue of 37 to 39 billion. They were probably being conservative. Again, this does not take into account the share buyback and its effect on EPS.

        From a fundamentals, it's hard to argue that we are at or around the bottom. From a technical standpoint, the spring double bottom, the golden cross, and the general trend higher are all positives as well.

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