The market has a way of proving that "pigs get slaughtered" by being too greedy. I have been long a ton of Jan 14 Leap Calls since AAPL was at $400. I have made enough from the calls to "almost" retire but have this gut feeling that for now, great AAPL earnings are already "priced into" the $525 pps since Cook said that revenue's would come in at the high end.
I an certain AAPL will work its was back to retest $700 but in the short-term, I fear AAPL pps may take a breather and a "sell the news" reaction after Monday's ER.
I hope I am wrong, but the market has a way of making us look foolish whenever a trade has been very profitable and we are hoping for even more (greedy).
I would like to hear thoughts from options players. I am thinking of closing out my Jan calls before the ER on Monday, and rolling them to April 14s or July 14s. Monday is the last ER for the Jan calls so the premiums are likely to deflate quite a bit, even if AAPL shares go up or stay the same after the ER.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I think it won't be sell the news event. Even during Ipad presentation, ppl expected it will be sell the news but holds steady, may be 1-2 $ drop, but nothing special..... so I would expect pop for 20 then immediate go down to 10 and gradually back it up since more institutional investor are bullish for long term and year end. Also some MMs are in under water because start of 2013, AAPL was 530 ish so they will definitely make this huge run up to 600 by year end.... just my 2 cents. I am holding bunch of jan 2015 600 calls ...
def not sell the news as margins will surprise and forward guidance will be blockbuster- if you have any trepidation make some short term cash if your bias is correct and buy some put protection
If your calls are deep in thw money and you have a few months left I would let it ride. I share the same concern that mosy of this is priced in, but I do thibk we go higher up until New Years. The trend is your friend - dont you think mosy of the market is thinking as you? Its not contrarian as you may think that it will be priced in and sell off. Perhaps the contrarian move is thay it goes even higher
I guess well find out on Tues.
But yeah, if I had weeklies I would be selling. If I owned the stock or 60+ days left for expiration Id hold.
In my opinion, on whats going on with tech beating earnings this season. goog, nflx,amzn etc,,, AAPL will beat earnings and even though it did rise 100 + in the last 3 months, it will raise after earnings. I bet it will hold 520 into this weeks friday, and it will get to 600 by December. the chart says its not going back at least until January. but its your money so its your call.