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Arcam AB Message Board

  • rniesen77@gmail.com rniesen77 Sep 4, 2013 3:03 PM Flag

    Retrench ... any know why?

    There are seven actively traded 3D stocks (let me know if I am missing any) right now only AMAVF, SSYS, and XONE were down today. SSYS and XONE are issuing stock so there is not surprise there. Is AMAVF simply retrenching after a long run up or does someone out there know why it rallied to ~$112 yesterday and is dropped to ~$106 at the moment (it was as low as $102 today). Is this a buying opportunity or is the stock breaking?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Also it hit 10 moving average and started falling. 10 day SMA is 101.81

    • profit taking is a logical thing after a doubling of share price. The smaller the float, the bigger the effect of profit taking.
      Once the large subscribers at 45 have finished taking profits (for perhaps half of their investments), I think we will be in business "as usual" :)

    • I think it's looking to see where it's new bottom is. My vote is ~90 + or - $2......... I have some cash too so I look at anything around 90 as a good buy in point right now. We'll see.

    • There are two other factors that might be influencing the move here-
      1- Geo-political uncertainty. I know it is not a middle east company but for some reason Europe heavy stocks are not doing as well whenever market goes down on Syria news
      2- Money rotating back to DDD. As DDD had some good news and upgrade, it has started picking up speed and some money that rotated into ARCAM from DDD might be going back.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • gary_anderson_3dprintingstocks gary_anderson_3dprintingstocks Sep 4, 2013 5:18 PM Flag

      I agree with orion's post. The stock looks like it's consolidating after a big run.

      I would add that I think it's important to see/know when the biggest portion of the run started and exactly why.

      While the stock was in an obvious uptrend from January on, if you look at a daily chart you'll see when that uptrend turned into a fast run over the last 2 months. Look at the gap from July 18 to July 19, followed immediately by an increase in volume and price. That's when the uptrend turned into a run- on July 19.

      What happened on July 19?

      Arcam reported their Q2 numbers. The subsequent move was based on fundamentals, not hype. And in that time frame (July 19- present) AMAVF has outperformed every 3D printing stock out there by a mile.

      Nobody can predict the short term from here of course.

      But what I can predict with 90% confidence is that the next big move will begin on or around October 18, when they report Q3 numbers. Fundamentals still matter- even in 3D printing stocks. And those with the strongest fundamentals will ultimately outperform the others. That's what happened starting July 19, and (IMO) it's what will happen again when they report a minimum 100% growth in sales in Q3.

    • The strong uptrend that started in July is over, at least temporarily. RSI below 70 for the first time in awhile as well. Current geopolitical environment and the looming specter of the end of QE isn't really helping Amavf's cause. Doubtful that Arcam will pick up again at quite the same pace as before(come on July/Aug was crazy) but EBM still looks like a promising technology so at least that hasn't changed.
      I'd like to add to my position but I plan on waiting until I'm sure that isn't part of a larger more prolonged drop. The opportunity cost of missing out on a move upward doesn't pain me as much as buying in and actively participating in a fall.

      Sentiment: Hold

 
AMAVF
16.82-0.08(-0.47%)Feb 11 3:32 PMEST