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Rockwell Medical, Inc. Message Board

  • blehair@gmail.com blehair Jul 10, 2013 5:01 PM Flag

    Last minute trading could have just been meaningless chart action.

    Stock was bouncing off $3.4, was downtrending with the previous high at $5.53... When it broke $5.53, traders saw a signal and jumped on it. Within 7 minutes of breaking $5.53, 2 well-followed biotraders tweeted breakout. Then the momo and chatter escalated from there.

    It may have simply been meaningless chart action, don't take it as a sign that good results are inevitable.

    Likewise, the AH action is simply run-up traders, some(but probably mostly) who bought after today's $5.53 signal, bailing because they do not want to hold through the catalyst. It's not that they think trial will fail, they simply have a principal that they never hold through a catalyst, they are pure run-up traders.

    Further, the PR is meaningless. People always try to derive meaning from the way PR was done, but it's generally fool-hardy. Now, that objectivity aside, my subjective opinion is that either results are good, or mixed. This isn't a cancer trial, or some other indication where patient population subsets can be dissected post-hoc for responder groups. If this trial fails, by any measure, SFP is dead, there are no subsets, and so a CC is pointless unless they are discussing future forecast on expense reductions, etc... But, I've never seen such financial details get discussed on the data CC. A mixed result is if stat sig is missed but they have clear reason why, and thus hype hopes that CRUISE-2 may succeed regardless.

    So, good or mixed results tomorrow most likely. A CC for failure when there is no potential follow-up for the therapy in another subset is quite pointless, but that doesn't mean I'm right, there's a first for everything.

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