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Rockwell Medical, Inc. Message Board

  • blehair@gmail.com blehair Jul 11, 2013 4:24 PM Flag

    TSRX and ACRX post-data moves shows what will happen to RMTI

    TSRX is 50% higher than where it closed on catalyst day. ACRX is 100% higher.

    Personally, I think RMTI has more upside than ACRX, so when CRUISE-2 datarolls around in Sept, and more Cacitrol news is announced, we will be over $7 before October at the latest.

    However, CRUISE-1 had 0.011 stat sig, the chances of CRUISE-2 failure is approx. 1 against 99. All of the endpoints were quite significant. These are large patient populations, there is not likely to be any differentiation in the data we saw today.

    Thus, there is no reason why CRUISE-2 would be a de-risking event. It just doesn't make sense from a statistical standpoint, CRUISE-2 is quite pointless... Had CRUISE-1 edged by with 0.049 or 0.05, I could understand the concern that CRUISE-2 falls just outside of 0.05, but that will not happen. CRUISE-1 was painting 0.01s all over the results, the worst we can see is maybe 0.02, which is still great.

    Shorts won today, no one is going to contest that. Catalyst dumpers are going to miss out on a big-run, like the one seen in ACRX.

    Seriously, if you have available cash, you should load up here. The PT upgrades will inevitably come. I thought they would come today, but they didn't. Price target PRs can be very effective at motivating a bull run, and that effectiveness isn't lost if it doesn't happen on catalyst day.

    Reuters article quotes an analyst projecting over $300M revenue. I, personally, use $150-200M revenue to justify current fair value to be in the $7s... If analysts start lining up behind the $300-500M revenue estimates, we will see $14 PTs all summer long. You really think this stays below $7 before October? That's seriously wishful thinking. Shorts got a slight reprieve today, but they will lose the war.

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