but the declining stock price is "proving" Brean a lot smarter than Chardan Capital. Price much closer to $4 than the $22 predicted by Chardan. I would think Chardan has some serious egg on their face as RMTI is down almost 14% from when Chardan did their thing in December. Yes, I know it was forecasted 22 in twelve months, but Chardan certainly didn't see this handwriting on the wall or they would have waited until this bottoms out and then looked good. Here is hoping birthday boy gets his wish!! But, the longer this takes for manufacturing approval, the more likely there is something significant we aren't being told. Why oh why didn't they just use the original approved manufacturer and get this to market well over a year ago????
One, you really must differentiate between a decline based upon hard core data i.e. failed trials, vs. a decline based upon an analyst's opinion. First, RMTI would never have dropped so precipitously had it not already been overbought. That is the key. However, the better question to ask is, would we be sitting at this low point had Brean not made a public "opinionated" statement? If the answer is "yes" than that means the problem is fundamental in the drug or the company and independent of the analyst's comments. If the answer is "no" than the problem is emotional investing...a very powerful motivator both on the upside and downside. Another way to ask the question is what do you think would happen to the price if tomorrow the FDA approved the drug? Then who would be the genius and who would be the jack#ss?
So I would not use price as an indicator of who is right and who is wrong at this stage of the game. At present, the jury remains out for deliberation. Unfortunately there is always pain and anguish during any jury deliberation...both on the side of the prosecution and the defense.
Zing. Very good post. I do feel a component of fear was sprinkled onto the many weak holders who had no true inkling of RMTI. Also the company while having in my mind potential for great fundamentals has not actually proven itself and that also leaves a little hesitancy. Yes there are stocks like twtr and zillow that I cannot explain... But I think short pieces always win in the short term that I have personally seen. I am personally long. Any person with an average IQ can ccounter those claims
Are you new to the biotech investment? 14% short term drop is nothing for a biotech stock, within the normal variance even without any news. If you use this to attack target price, you pretty much can complain any evaluation agency.
The key here is that you do your DD, and understand the fundamentals of the company you own. Otherwise you will be nervous every time there is a price drop or gain (should I sell or not?).
I work in the pharma/bio industry. Normally FDA is involved in the Ph3 design. If this is the case for Rockwell, the accusation of a flawed design is groundless...
Really not new to biotech, as my largest investment is there. Got lucky once. I've done what I believe is a fair amount of DD on the dialysis industry. I am by no means a sophisticated investor. As far as RMTI goes, one either buys into their story and its potential for a future income stream or one doesn't. That said, RMTI has been making a lot of people a lot of money. Both those who brought early and sold high and those who short the stock and then cover lower. RMTI is almost, IMHO, the perfect stock for doing this given this believer/non-believer split. What I haven't understood is all the technical talk about charting. If RMTI is really being manipulated, is charting really valid? Can't the manipulators manipulate to make the chart say what they want it to say? From what I've seen, it looks to me that the MM really does punish those who want to sell. Is this a valid conclusion? As for your last paragraph, "normally the FDA is involved in the Ph3 design, etc" Didn't the doctor in charge and who sued RMTI, allege RMTI received a "no-go letter" from the FDA? As I understand it, the doctor lost because he could not prove damages as he went on to a better higher paying job. His claims were never ruled upon as far as I know. Does anyone know different?
Do you have any idea how investment firm price targets work? They dont give a #$%$ about short term games played by hedgefunds or short term price movements, they set a price target one year out based on the fundamentals of the company. The stock could trade at one dollar for the next 11 months and go to 22 in the 12th month and chardan would look just as good. Clearly you dont understand how this stuff works. LMAO
That is not altogether true. You will notice analysts adjust their targets with the moves in the stock. Do you know why they do that? They are required to keep their price targets within a certain range at all times. If it diverges from that range, like is the case with Twitter stock right now, you will see a flurry of analysts rush to re-adjust or re-confirm their targets. Twitter has received a number of downgrades recently for that reason. RMTI is being manipulated for whatever reason, as I do not see any fundamental change in the company, but such is biotech investing. Once it forms a base, it will either rebound back to a sustainable level or just level off for a while until news hits. I don't know if it is completely done falling short-term, but I do believe it is definitely undervalued at this level.