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Trenwick Group Ltd. (TWK) Message Board

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  • cigarbat cigarbat Jan 10, 2003 10:10 PM Flag

    My Two Cents;

    Jad... on one of your earlier posts, re: Dvidend:

    >>I disagree with you about the dividend. A 10 center would cost them only $370K, hardly a bank breaker. The question is, would it help TWK to get back on the dividend wagon? Have to to think on that. Any opinions out there, other than subjective stuff? <<

    I only asked him the question about reinstating the dividend. he said he'd be surprised if they did (before end of year), those were his exact words.

    I agree with you, a few hundred grand is nothing in this biz and would go along way to uping the price. Gives great confidence to stock holders and buyers.

    But, I think they may not be allowed to without bank approval, he may think bank would shoot it down til strong recovery has shown for 2-3 qtrs.

    I'm still perplexed why he said the "good deal" statement. I didn't ask him if our buy in was a good deal. If things were bleak, would any price be a good deal? no.

    If it is such a good deal, why are they not loading up the wagon? Is there anything that bars them from doing so? Too close to earnings release, I know they have limitations on their purchases & Sales.

    It bothers me cause, it seems too good to be true. And, anything that's too good to be true, usually ISN'T. (that's not 100% of the time)

    Gotta go, wife wants to go out to eats


    • Cigar:

      Your concern as to why the execs are not buying may be answered by timing. Insiders are not allowed to benefit from inside info.

      This company has a series of problems that they are working to correct. If you assume they are making progress then they have a continuing stream of beneficial info to act on. But they are not allowed to act on it. Think of it as a ball rolling down hill; things keep getting better so they can't catch a break to stop and buy.

      I would assume that they are being very concervative in their personal actions. Marty is being paid $50,000 per month. Not a tremendous amount by todays standards, but certainly not chicken feed.

      We should watch and see what hapopens immediately after earnings release and the conference call. That is when they bring the world up to their level of knowledge and it is an even playing field. That is when I would expect them to buy if the PPs hasn't gone out of site.

    • cig:

      Ok, so you're not saying no dividend, MB did.
      He'd be surprised if there were a reinstatement this year. Was that his word:: surprised? Life is full of surprises and, unless he is a zombie, he is not immune to them. He's looking down the road and, if I may add, he telling us he's not quite sure things will be that good this year. But THAT GOOD doesn't mean it will be bad. That's what's he telling us with his statement that stockholders in at this price are in good shape. His sentiment is made up of these two visions. For us to come upon this inside view without violating a single law is pretty remarkable. I am more confident now, but I am still going to have to struggle a bit with my patience. The wait will be palatable if at least start moving up after the CC.

      I don't know if insiders can buy now. I think they'll have to wait until the Q4 report is out of the way. It's way too crucial an event at this point for the market. A good test would be ask themselves if they now know anything that the public doesn't know, anything that might move the market when made public. If the answer is yes, they can't buy, or shouldn't. I think their first chance to buy will be right after the CC. The price will still be good...maybe around $1.25.

      Here's a little plot for you--it's a simulation of course. Here goes. The object is to keep the price down so insiders can buy low right after the CC. A make-believe director hears that CNA wants out. He calls his broker and puts in a buy order for 3.7 mil shares @.60. The MM calls CNA and asks if they're interested in selling their 3.7 mil shares. They say yes and put in a limit sell order at .60. Deal's done. Now teh director tells his broker: sell them all. Get me an average of .75 a share and the rest is yours and stretch it out until the date of the CC. At first the broker unloads in the 70 cent range, sees firm interest in that price, and decides to test see if it'll go to the 80s. He stops selling. It goes to 85. It stiffens at 85, so he starts unloading again; but he
      does too much and it slips back into the 70s again. He adjusts a little and it starts back to the 80.. ... And that brings us to now... The stock has moved back up to .76 and on Monday and Tuesday, if I don't miss my bet, it'll be up again. What does the MM do this time? He's stingier now when it hits 85; sees that it'll go to 95; then at 95 he starts selling again letting it go back to 85 and so it goes until just before the CC he stops selling altogether and after a day or two at .95, it dawns on people it isn't going to repeat the drop to 85... This is it. In the last 2-3 days before the CC, it moves up to $1.25; Then we get the CC, the good news and we're moving up nicely from there; the CC is over; the insiders are scooping it up and....The end....curtain falls on this tale of how a small band of people became rich and powerful on a chance encounter on a Yahoo message board in late 2002. The last part is true, the rest is ficticious... Plots are fun but mine only happen in the movies...I'm outta here...Hope you had a good dinner...jad


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