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Trenwick Group Ltd. (TWK) Message Board

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  • cigarbat cigarbat Jan 10, 2003 10:10 PM Flag

    My Two Cents;

    Jad... on one of your earlier posts, re: Dvidend:

    >>I disagree with you about the dividend. A 10 center would cost them only $370K, hardly a bank breaker. The question is, would it help TWK to get back on the dividend wagon? Have to to think on that. Any opinions out there, other than subjective stuff? <<

    I only asked him the question about reinstating the dividend. he said he'd be surprised if they did (before end of year), those were his exact words.

    I agree with you, a few hundred grand is nothing in this biz and would go along way to uping the price. Gives great confidence to stock holders and buyers.

    But, I think they may not be allowed to without bank approval, he may think bank would shoot it down til strong recovery has shown for 2-3 qtrs.

    I'm still perplexed why he said the "good deal" statement. I didn't ask him if our buy in was a good deal. If things were bleak, would any price be a good deal? no.

    If it is such a good deal, why are they not loading up the wagon? Is there anything that bars them from doing so? Too close to earnings release, I know they have limitations on their purchases & Sales.

    It bothers me cause, it seems too good to be true. And, anything that's too good to be true, usually ISN'T. (that's not 100% of the time)

    Gotta go, wife wants to go out to eats


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    • cig:

      Ok, so you're not saying no dividend, MB did.
      He'd be surprised if there were a reinstatement this year. Was that his word:: surprised? Life is full of surprises and, unless he is a zombie, he is not immune to them. He's looking down the road and, if I may add, he telling us he's not quite sure things will be that good this year. But THAT GOOD doesn't mean it will be bad. That's what's he telling us with his statement that stockholders in at this price are in good shape. His sentiment is made up of these two visions. For us to come upon this inside view without violating a single law is pretty remarkable. I am more confident now, but I am still going to have to struggle a bit with my patience. The wait will be palatable if at least start moving up after the CC.

      I don't know if insiders can buy now. I think they'll have to wait until the Q4 report is out of the way. It's way too crucial an event at this point for the market. A good test would be ask themselves if they now know anything that the public doesn't know, anything that might move the market when made public. If the answer is yes, they can't buy, or shouldn't. I think their first chance to buy will be right after the CC. The price will still be good...maybe around $1.25.

      Here's a little plot for you--it's a simulation of course. Here goes. The object is to keep the price down so insiders can buy low right after the CC. A make-believe director hears that CNA wants out. He calls his broker and puts in a buy order for 3.7 mil shares @.60. The MM calls CNA and asks if they're interested in selling their 3.7 mil shares. They say yes and put in a limit sell order at .60. Deal's done. Now teh director tells his broker: sell them all. Get me an average of .75 a share and the rest is yours and stretch it out until the date of the CC. At first the broker unloads in the 70 cent range, sees firm interest in that price, and decides to test see if it'll go to the 80s. He stops selling. It goes to 85. It stiffens at 85, so he starts unloading again; but he
      does too much and it slips back into the 70s again. He adjusts a little and it starts back to the 80.. ... And that brings us to now... The stock has moved back up to .76 and on Monday and Tuesday, if I don't miss my bet, it'll be up again. What does the MM do this time? He's stingier now when it hits 85; sees that it'll go to 95; then at 95 he starts selling again letting it go back to 85 and so it goes until just before the CC he stops selling altogether and after a day or two at .95, it dawns on people it isn't going to repeat the drop to 85... This is it. In the last 2-3 days before the CC, it moves up to $1.25; Then we get the CC, the good news and we're moving up nicely from there; the CC is over; the insiders are scooping it up and....The end....curtain falls on this tale of how a small band of people became rich and powerful on a chance encounter on a Yahoo message board in late 2002. The last part is true, the rest is ficticious... Plots are fun but mine only happen in the movies...I'm outta here...Hope you had a good dinner...jad

      • 3 Replies to jad_333
      • >>P.S. Here's a little plot for you........curtain falls on this tale
        of how a small band of people became rich and powerful
        on a chance encounter on a Yahoo message board in late 2002.<<

        -------Jump to the YEAR - 2013

        NOON, Downtown Anaheim, USA..... Armed gurrillas surround the Rich Grinch as he continues his world domination of all industries, flips open his watch phone, ordering his minion Subzero to lay off 85% of the global population, replacing them with robotics.

        Panic sets in, Lionbalm says I knew it, seals himself in his underground shelter, growing long fingernails and refusing to bath. Farmer hoards all food supplies,

        the Fag, after his family abandoned him 10 years earlier, corner's the world's electrical power grid. Preparing to shut it down, he Inject's himself with massive quantities of prozac and is heard saying:

        HAHAHE HE --==--==YOUR DONE NOW, YOUR DONE--__==----FUFUFUFUFUFUFU--==++==**.

        Cigibat says "this deal's cratering", Stuck_Pig moves 38 miles north to the arctic, Sure for Sure, who has no Gender, hooks up with Mih lover, who has no gender.....

        ........ And the world becomes a dark, forbiding place to live......,

        High on a hilltop in the fog enshrouded Shenendoah Valley, sitting in the great room of his mansion, and just before the final power shut down......Jad, the wise sage, peers deep into his holographic computer.......and types The WORLD'S FINAL POST:

        .............................What have we Wrought?

        {cursor blink, cursor blink, power down}

      • So, Jad?

        Did you sell the movie rights yet?

      • Two problems with your scenario:

        1) It's too complicated. I think you can stop with delivery of 3.7 million shares to a market maker with instructions to sell at an average price of .75. That would be sufficient to keep the price in the .75 - .90 range for a long time at current volumes, especially when a bunch of retail investors are trapped and unhappy with the lack of movement. No need to risk manipulation liability by giving an explicit instruction to keep the price down until the CC.

        2) If the numbers are as good as we think, this plan only works until the moment of the conference call. No time to get on board afterwards if it goes up as fast as it did last time. Which sucggests that if a hypothetical company were engaging in this scenario, their estimate of the sudden CC impact must be less than we have been expecting for TWK.

        Interestingly, the fact that TWK has been confined in a narrow trading range will most likely mean that a lot of retail and momo investors have forgotten about TWK by the time of the CC. This could indeed cause a more gradual price increase as good news comes in. Insiders could benefit because the stock wouldn't spike out of reach after the CC, but they could reasonably claim they were just trying to stabilize the price and avoid a catastrophic dump of 3.7 million shares.

        Of course the corollary to this is that, with the float being so small, from here on out nobody can acquire a significant stake in the open market without causing a huge price spike.

    • Cigar:

      Your concern as to why the execs are not buying may be answered by timing. Insiders are not allowed to benefit from inside info.

      This company has a series of problems that they are working to correct. If you assume they are making progress then they have a continuing stream of beneficial info to act on. But they are not allowed to act on it. Think of it as a ball rolling down hill; things keep getting better so they can't catch a break to stop and buy.

      I would assume that they are being very concervative in their personal actions. Marty is being paid $50,000 per month. Not a tremendous amount by todays standards, but certainly not chicken feed.

      We should watch and see what hapopens immediately after earnings release and the conference call. That is when they bring the world up to their level of knowledge and it is an even playing field. That is when I would expect them to buy if the PPs hasn't gone out of site.