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Trenwick Group Ltd. (TWK) Message Board

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  • albrt_alligator albrt_alligator Jan 11, 2003 12:27 PM Flag

    My Two Cents;

    Two problems with your scenario:

    1) It's too complicated. I think you can stop with delivery of 3.7 million shares to a market maker with instructions to sell at an average price of .75. That would be sufficient to keep the price in the .75 - .90 range for a long time at current volumes, especially when a bunch of retail investors are trapped and unhappy with the lack of movement. No need to risk manipulation liability by giving an explicit instruction to keep the price down until the CC.

    2) If the numbers are as good as we think, this plan only works until the moment of the conference call. No time to get on board afterwards if it goes up as fast as it did last time. Which sucggests that if a hypothetical company were engaging in this scenario, their estimate of the sudden CC impact must be less than we have been expecting for TWK.

    Interestingly, the fact that TWK has been confined in a narrow trading range will most likely mean that a lot of retail and momo investors have forgotten about TWK by the time of the CC. This could indeed cause a more gradual price increase as good news comes in. Insiders could benefit because the stock wouldn't spike out of reach after the CC, but they could reasonably claim they were just trying to stabilize the price and avoid a catastrophic dump of 3.7 million shares.

    Of course the corollary to this is that, with the float being so small, from here on out nobody can acquire a significant stake in the open market without causing a huge price spike.