Agrees with the 9/30 balance sheet. I see nothing wrong with it. For-sure came back and said he overlooked that the LaSalle pref and converts would have already been factored in the 9/20 TNW you cited earlier...jad
I don't have any big hitters to chip away from your numbers- but then again, that's pretty darn cyclical in logic b/c most of my big ticket items came from, or were confirmed, by you.
Potential big-picture losses
1. Collateralization (is this the right term!?!) to Chubb and Lloyds - but, per you, this stays on twks books. So, never mind.
2. Lost surplus from seized subs (let's see you say that 3 times, fast). I'm still fuzzy on this issue, but that won't keep me from tossing out a number- $50M. I can supply some really flimsy logic for this but you'll laugh at me. However, I won't be able to hear your laughter over my own. But, that's my # for now. I'd like to get a harder estimate on the potential loss from this issue - backing out from which subs did what policies combined with the statement that the Lloyds biz didn't require much strengthening.
cigar, this still surprises me- in the years of the big time under pricing, twk was barely writing anything, ave ~$300M. And they still needed $200M of strengthening? Wow.
That's all I got. Thanks for all of your hard #'s today.
Well, I keep reading the damn 10Q 3Qtr financial, it's pissing me off. All the numbers keep changing, the further you read.
I'm at this one point, it says as of 9/02, book value is $8.58!
>>>Lost surplus from seized subs (let's see you say that 3 times, fast).
I don't have the US subs fin. with me at home. But, it's somewhere up to $225 mil, maybe $175 mil. I can't fully recall, I have too many numbers are rolling in my head from too many companies.
For sure, they'd be left with the LOC collateral and $50 mil at chubb. I'd probably still take the 1.35 per share value, without too much debt and profit producing bizness.
I did read about the $40 mill (on their books now) deal with Zurich Re. Looks like if the stock trades too low, we could get some dilution and a higher interest rate, based on TWKs S &P rating. (Minor for now).
On their prior underreserving, I think they got bamboozled when they bot those other companies (to a degree).