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Trenwick Group Ltd. (TWK) Message Board

  • jl_maverick_59 jl_maverick_59 Jul 12, 1999 12:22 PM Flag

    FUNNY WHAT WORKS

    FUNNY WHAT WORKS


    I recently found a
    site some of you might be interested in.
    I've made
    money three out of the past four weeks.
    For a hot
    link to this site, click on the address
    below.
    http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=8729122&tid=wilcf&sid=8729122&mid=1
    19

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    • If they cut the dividend, the stock will drop
      heavily. This will make them more of a takeover candidate
      then they already are. My guess, w/o any inside
      knowledgr, is 2 potential buyers would be GE Capital (they
      looked seriosuly at CW and took the $$$ off the table),
      and Fairfax (to add to their TIG and Odyssey Re
      combination).

    • Agree the deal will go thru.
      Probably by end
      of Oct.
      Doing a lot of reading
      tonight.

      Can't help but wonder about the security of the
      dividend.
      TREN paying well at a buck-four, but CWL is only
      paying 16-cents per year.
      Industry average is only
      about 1 1/2%.
      So wonder if TREN will cut dividend
      after the merger?

      Still a lot to catch up
      on.
      But looks like the acquisiton will bump their cash
      level by a couple bucks.
      Of course they will be
      spending big time in the short term, so that won't
      last.

      T-Bird

    • Again, I appreciate your comments.
      Should have
      my Investor pack tomorrow afternoon.
      Hope to be
      able to talk with the company also, but will be out of
      the office much of tomorrow.

      I've a lot to
      learn about this company.
      Just hoping for
      "non-expensive" lessons.

      T-Bird

    • Little chance the deal WONT go through.

    • Trenwick is supposed to be buying Chartwell for
      .825 shares for every Chartwell share. Right now, TREN
      is $20, CWl is 15.50. If you buy 100 shares of CWL @
      15.5, you will get 82 shares of TREN. However, using
      the relationship of .825, you will be paying just
      under $19/share (for TREN) It's probably worthwhile,
      because there is little chance the deal will go through,
      from what I heard.

    • Appreciate your view, RoundDude.

      Guess I
      didn't consider TREN being bought out.
      Didn't expect
      that.
      And may not have realized the extent of the "dog"
      company they are taking over.
      But seems "sow's ear to
      silk purse" is a good way to expand
      margins.

      Your mention of time frame compares to
      mine.
      Estimates are for 15% growth, Y2K over 1999.
      If 2001 can
      also match that and pull a PE of 10, that would put
      the price in the range you mention.
      Add 2 1/2
      bucks for the dividend and thats a pretty decent return
      on a $20 stock over 2 1/2 or three
      years.

      jmho.

      T-Bird

    • I hope you didn't sell your 57 T-Bird to buy
      this. At best, it's a very long term investment (you
      are hoping that TREN itself will be acquired). TREN
      is in the midst of acquiring an absolute dog of a
      losing company. I do not see this adding anything to the
      Company's value in the next couple of years. You gotta hope
      someone comes in and offers around $32-$35 a
      share.

      If TREN stays independent, I can't see the stock
      doing anything but going down.

    • Anyone still around?
      This one caught my
      attention recently. So yesterday I started
      accumulating.

      Sure beaten down.
      Understandable that most holders
      are soured on it.
      Especially because anyone who
      bought it since 1992 is in a losing position.
      That
      sure makes for potential tax-loss selling over the
      next 3 months.
      I had this on a watch list, but it
      appears to have a lot of accumulation going on now, so
      decided to not wait.

      My viewpoint is different
      because I'm not holding a loss.
      ( I've held plenty of
      them, so know the feeling )
      But I see value.
      And
      accumulation.
      A decent PE.
      Dividends.
      Managable debt.
      A
      PSR value about 1/3 of historical levels.
      Price
      only 2/3 of book value.
      Estimated growth double the
      current PE.
      And a mini-uptrend since
      August.

      T-Bird

    • Cole gave the excuse that it was his health. More
      like, Trenwick woke up and figured that they could
      better spend his salary elsewhere. That's a positive
      piece of news, if you ask me. Regarding the plane
      crash, CWL probably has so much reinsurance that it wont
      be that big a deal. Tren will be the next company
      taken over, but wait til it hits 17 before you buy.

    • I totally agree with you in regards to their
      legacy. I guess I normally don't think of the President
      and Chairman as deadwood -- that's normally reserved
      for staff which get jetisoned in a deal of this
      nature. At least now only Bensinger is coming over and he
      won't have the same power he currently has with Billett
      in place.

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