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USG Corporation Message Board

  • froddoislost froddoislost Nov 22, 2004 3:50 PM Flag


    Oww, Oww, Oww,


    I'm glad I'm not short

    23by next week!!!!

    Your all gonna die . . . . .

    I guess I've either got all you idiots on ignore, or you've all shut up (or had your phones disconnected).

    At any rate, I needed a little comic relief.


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    • "23by next week!!!!"

      I realize that is not your prediction. But next week it more than likely will go down.

      USG is supposed to file for a POR extension, again. Shorts are covering-going long this week. Will short again after USG files for extension.

      There was some talk previously about the SIR dropping from maybe 16mil to 8 mil by next report period, Dec 15th. But why should the shorts cover now, before the DEC report? After the extension is granted a likelyhood of an event is lessened. Wait and see what USG does per the POR extension and then short leaving the SIR in the DEC report about where it was in the NOV report. And then cover after DEC 15th.

      Jan report would be when the SIR will drop.

      All, of course, IMHO.

      • 1 Reply to psybotol
      • I must respectfully disagree.

        With over 7 million in the money calls a/o 11/19 expiry, and very limited apparent rollover into the February series, you must expect to see a substantial drop in the SIR, ceteris paribus.

        However, the SIR has always been artificially bloated by the very high level of option activity. Think of it: in just one month, Nov 04, there were call options outstanding on over 16% of USG's entire common stock issue.

        Nonetheless, a residual SIR of 8-9 million shares (20% of outstanding common) is stil an enormous SIR if it is mostly "outright". Also, traders may be getting a false sense of security from the 1,000,000 average daily volume. At 2.3% of total common shares outstanding, that's a very big number. It's as if 140 million shares of XOM, 230 million shares of GE or 245 million shares of MSFT traded every day. So the 9 days to cover implied by a 9mln SIR is misleading. Any reduction of option related activity would lead to decreased volume and make it much harder (more painful!) for outright shorts to cover.

        The one thing we simply don't know is what amount of OTC derivatives are outstanding, which could completely alter the real picture regarding "outright" shorts. Therefore the above is nothing more than speculation, but perhaps it helps put a few things in perspective...

    • Look in the mirror.

29.87+0.850(+2.93%)Jan 26 4:04 PMEST

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