anybody remember late December? day after day of dollar per share gains . . . if legislation gets to the floor we'll see forty again . . . and I'm told the votes are there . . . for cloture (which may not be necessary), and to easily pass on a floor vote (even without all 55 Reps.)
Look at it this way; we WILL have all 55 for cloture, and in order to stand on other (more key points) for the dems, they have to back down somewhere, or risk about 4 or 5 seats with an obstructionist label in '06. Now, if you can't come up with the five needed for cloture, you are not paying attention.
I know this seems a little too certain, but the only real question at this point is whether or not it gets to the floor, not what happens once it gets their; many kudos for both Frist and Specter for framing getting this set up this way.
As to whether or not it gets to the floor, it's a fifty fifty shot, which is a hell of a lot better than we've had up until now.
Can see no reason for the bill not getting to the floor, it nothing but on a vote out of committee along party lines. If this thing is going down to cloture or just going down, Sen Frist will paint the Dems as obstructionist. Plain and simple.
This is a no win for the Dems. Too many up for relection next year. If the Repubs keep showing the Dems for who they are, the Repubs will have a super majority in Nov 06 and the Dems know it. The country is shifting to the center and is getting fed up with a bunch of Democrat Neros!
Think of the following WSJ article statement from the perspective of the republican strategists, the republican senators and the strategists and democrat senators.
"Even worse, because of a 1994 change in bankruptcy law, the 70-or-so companies already in Chapter 11 will be wholly owned subsidiaries of the asbestos bar. They'll be semi-permanent cash machines for lawyers, and ultimately for the Democratic Senators whose campaigns they fund."
Will the republicans allow 70-or-so companies to be wholly owned by the trial bar? Will democrat senators up for election want that on their records? Would any decent thinking, concerned senator, republican or democrat allow the trial bar to take over a large chunk industry?
[If this thing is going down to cloture or just going down, Sen Frist will paint the Dems as obstructionist. Plain and simple.]
I don't believe for a moment that it will make the slightest bit of difference to the Democrats what Frist says about them (BTW Frist lost a lot of credibility on the Schiavo thing, he played his "I'm a famous doctor" card once too often). I think this legislation will eventually pass but not because the Dems are afraid of Frist.
[the Repubs keep showing the Dems for who they are, the Repubs will have a super majority in Nov 06]
Not if the Republicans keep hanging themselves with things like Schiavo. I am also feeling pretty good about the newest breed of Dem senators (especially Obama, I thought it was all hype but this guy is promising).
So you think our hurdle is getting to the floor and not cloture.
Thats wierd because I hear that getting out of committee is almost a certainty at this point but that cloture is still up in the air but legislation generally is more likely today than it was Wenesday (apparently something happened yesterday, anyone got hard info?).