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  • oldpalos oldpalos Apr 19, 2005 4:46 PM Flag

    Going Down!!!!

    We've placed our bets, if you think the small swings we see on light volume is something, you are going to have a heart attack when you see the swing we see when the vote comes out of committee.

    What is your spread in price----when vote comes out of committee??????

    My gut feeling is that----the stock will crash?

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    • It all depends on what happens with the vote. If the bill gets shot down, I think we can expect to drop back down to the low 30s. If we pas I think we can jump to the high 50s.

      If legislation passes, that is the end of the story and USG starts to trade like a housing stock at around $90 to $100. If legislation fails, then that is NOT the end of the story. There are more than a few people that have been holding this stock for several years.

      If you 100 bought this stock at the high every year since it went into Bankruptcy and sold today, you would be looking at an internal rate of return of over 40% annually (if you owned the stock since the bankruptcy, I doubt you would sell today). If you can convince yourself that we are going to have an asbestos resolution someday then do what people on this board have been doing since this stock was below 5... buy it, put it away and laugh at people like me who buy out of the money calls for more than they bought the underlying stock for.

      USG is worth 45 even if the subsidiary (which accounts for the majority of earnings and sales) that is the target of almost all the asbestos liability were to evaporate into the hands of the asbestos lawyers. What we are betting on is what the asbestos encumbered subsidiary is worth with and without legislation.

 
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19.49-1.55(-7.37%)Feb 8 4:04 PMEST