but this is starting to get little ridiculous. How long can BTE just go straight up before it stalls out? I've owned this one since very early 07. I have seen it go up nicely and dip down to my purchase price twice. I just wish I would have added shares each time. Oh well, fear will frequently freeze you in your tracks and euphoria will make you want to buy. I'll just sit tight for now since I am in it for the very long run; and, I'll just wait to buy again when she dips back down this coming fall. Enjoy the ride people. I have both hands up in the air right now.
I'm not much to go by but bought at 24.30 and just sold all at 29.80 in about 3 weeks. My guess is it'll either keep going, in which case i was an idiot, or it'll tumble back a bit and I'll get it again. I count fewer times that i was an idiot taking profits than an idiot realizing after they were long gone that I missed an opportunity. But 22% profit plus a .6% distribution isn't bad for 3 weeks. That climb just looked too steep for me.
The stock is clearly tracking oil. Goldman raised their fall '08 target price for WTI from $107 to $145 (or thereabouts) on growing diesel demand in China.
The rush is in full swing and while it is certainly cyclical, the end doesn't seem to be around the next corner. I haven't studied Baytex's risk management (hedging) policies, but expiring contracts are being reuped at the current value. In other words, the value of their reserves are loosely tracking with market prices.
If crude goes to 145 as Goldman projects, Baytex will be at 33.
BTE at current levels is not overpriced...it just reflect how undervalued it was before.
But it is a little extended, and wouldn't hurt to take profits and move on a little less overextended canroy like PWE or PGH. Although not canroys, I started a position in TLM and SNG recently.
I feel that Canadian oil/gas companies are grossly undervalued due to fear from govt taxation, but they are sitting on more untapped oil/gas than anywhere in the world outside of Russia. I think we could see doubles of many canadian energy stocks in the next year.
yeah, I picked up additional shares on the dip into the $16's in December(?). I sold them for a tidy profit already, wish I'd held a little longer.
I just sold one-half of my long position (avg basis about $18.50)hoping to buy them back cheaper....but who knows. Is oil priced irrationally right now, will the bubble burst sooner or later? Wish I knew. Anyway, I still have half of my position with a great yield.