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Baytex Energy Corp. Message Board

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  • stockhound765 stockhound765 Jun 5, 2008 7:26 PM Flag

    Holy Batshit Robin! 25% Cash Increase!!!

    Another one to keep an eye on with only 30% payout ratio is DAYYF, or DAY-UN

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    • I have recently been tracking US & Can Royalty Trusts. Anyone recall how Royalty Trusts perform when oil & Gas are in a bear or cooling market for their commodities?

      • 1 Reply to broughmo
      • >>Anyone recall how Royalty Trusts perform when oil & Gas are in a bear or cooling market for their commodities?<<

        Poorly, very poorly. To see a simple relationship (and for US trusts not subject to the Halloween Massacre), run a chart for SJT and CRT against NYMEX Nat Gas. You should notice some correlation, but there are always other factors - i.e., tight pipelines meaning no way to move NG, temp shut-ins, etc. You could also chart SJT and CRT distribs, which do tend to follow price - albeit on a 2 or 3 month delay, but once again there are other factors: Cap Ex, lawsuits, etc.

        BTE is a mild exception, but even here we saw a significant drop starting in late 2006 due to the Halloween Massacre and O&G price weakness.

        If you are in to trade only, this is a dangerous time. Yes, long term O&G will only go up; short term, macro shocks may give us a hiccup sooner rather than later. But then again, Bush could prove he's more venal than we think and invade Iran. Turmoil in O&G follows, with spikes to the moon, but may lead to medium term lower prices as economies around the world grind to a halt.

        No matter what you do, remember that free advice is worth what you pay for it, do your own DD, and good luck.

 
BTE
15.28+0.48(+3.24%)Jul 2 4:01 PMEDT