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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • SMAC693 SMAC693 Nov 30, 2006 2:49 PM Flag

    What if P2 Glufo+Gem shows no better result?

    than Gem by itself?

    What will happen to the stock price?

    Or, will investors treat it as unimportant and wait for P3 Glufo results for February (i.e. 4-6 weeks after January)?

    In other words, would you sell your shares, wait, or for some reason buy more especially if it dips?

    IMO, the stock will crater to low $1 if not below $1 if P2 results are "disappointing".

    Somebody just posted about remembering TH-070. I found an article written in 2005 were THLD execs raved about the results. It seemed to be working so well for patients, then Boom, doesn't work. This could happen again with glufo.

    Disclosure: long stock, long 150% Dec 2.50 puts, long Feb calls.

    Waiting for the Januarys and Marchs to trade on Dec 18th.

    TIA

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    • Good question - given that they have about $1.50/share in cash, I would hope that it wouldn't crash below $1, but you never know? If the phase II does disappoint as a first line combination treatment, does that necessarily mean the FDA won't approve it as a second-line treatment - I don't think so.

      I just listened to the Lazard presentation, and was struck by how quickly this phase III trial has "progressed" (i.e. how quickly the patients are dying)- they completed enrollment of the 300 patients in August and the 258th death is expected in January - yikes! I understand that these patients have failed conventional treatment and that Glufo can on average only be expected to extend their lives for a small period of time, but what will be considered "statistacally significant" - one month, three months?

      I haven't invested in any cancer related biotechs before, because it seemed strange that a drug that could delay a patients death by a few months could be considered a "blockbuster", but with pacreatic and SCLC, that seems to be the case?

 
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