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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

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  • tredleon tredleon Nov 30, 2006 8:05 PM Flag

    What if P2 Glufo+Gem shows no better result?

    Good question - given that they have about $1.50/share in cash, I would hope that it wouldn't crash below $1, but you never know? If the phase II does disappoint as a first line combination treatment, does that necessarily mean the FDA won't approve it as a second-line treatment - I don't think so.

    I just listened to the Lazard presentation, and was struck by how quickly this phase III trial has "progressed" (i.e. how quickly the patients are dying)- they completed enrollment of the 300 patients in August and the 258th death is expected in January - yikes! I understand that these patients have failed conventional treatment and that Glufo can on average only be expected to extend their lives for a small period of time, but what will be considered "statistacally significant" - one month, three months?

    I haven't invested in any cancer related biotechs before, because it seemed strange that a drug that could delay a patients death by a few months could be considered a "blockbuster", but with pacreatic and SCLC, that seems to be the case?

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    • The enrollment process took 2 years, so the 258th death may have enrolled a long time ago. And the 300th person to enroll in August may live far beyond the release of the results.

      • 2 Replies to investorxc
      • Thanks for that insight - I was trying to find the enrollment start date in one of their press releases, but couldn't find it. Why would it take so long - with 30,000+ new cases every year and a similar amount of deaths, you would think finding 300 people willing to take a final shot on a new drug wouldn't take that long?

      • I think the point biotech_dinero made in the other thread should not be taken lightly: it seems that Glufo has never worked.

        As far as the stock is concerned, we need to have a plan in place personally and collectively:
        Personally, I am buying more than 100% put protection, so for every share I own, I also own 1.5 puts (multiplied by 100 of course).

        Collectively, if Phase 2=glufo+gem doesn't work, and phase 3, glufo by itself doesn't work, we should probably put together an investor's group to buy the company, remove the poison pill, and sell the company. The day phase 2 doesn't work, stock goes to low $1s, IMHO. The day phase 3 doesn't work, stock goes even further below cash value. Why wouldn't someone (or our group) make an easy 100-200% return, 50 cents per share for 1.50 in cash plus whatever we get for the pipeline?

        Look at THLD's founder's remarks regarding the now failed TH-070:

        THLD said in May 2005 TH-070 was working great. Many execs and insiders sold a lot of stock in th teens. May 2006, TH-070 suddenly doesn't work? Wow.

        For all of their accomplishments, I personally do not trust anyone at this company.

        HOWEVER, I would be a far richer man if glufo works in phase 2 and phase 3!!! I am long, just extremely nervous, well, a lot less nervous now that I own a ton of puts.


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