What do you think SMAC.... this should put alot more confidence from investers into this company. So Im thinking of holding it for a small while. But What do you think about holding through the phase 3? Phase 3 trials are not easy to pass but if they do this will sky rocket. I really wasnt even worried about this phase 2 but this phase 3 might scare me off. GK
The thing you have to remember is that the endpoint for the phase III trial is a very low bar - you are basically treating patients that are at the end of their rope and seeing if Glufo will extend their lives by a few months, which would be a success.
I think this is part of the reason why the after-hours response to the phase II results is muted - the results don't seem all that impressive on the surface - no complete responders, only partial responders and stable disease. But again, you have to look at the treatment population - these people have advanced/metastatic cancer with a very poor prognosis (survival after conventional chemo treatment is on average less than a year), so adding a few months to that equation is significant.
You have to recognize that Glufo is not expected to be a miracle drug that will cure these people - it is a supplementary therapy that attacks solid tumors from a different angle than conventional chemo, so the hope is it enhances response and survival, but is not a cure.
That is why IMO the phase II trial is equally important as the phase III (Glufo alone on patients that have not responded to Gem alone) - it will show that Glufo enhances "first line" treatment, and so will hopefully be tested and used with new conventional chemo agents that come along down the road.
Depends on your average price, which I'm guessing is well below 3.50 for you.
My plan: load up on a few more Feb 2.50 puts tomorrow which should be cheap. Hold the stock through the Phase 3 results which hopefully will be announced before Feb 16th.
Then, if Phase 3 doesn't work, you are protected to the downside. If it does work, this stock is going to $7, 8, 10 ???
The biggest hurdle as of late has been cleared: Phase 2 glufo+gem looks like it works or at least does not not work :) which would have caused the stock to crater.
I am letting other investors know about THLD on other boards, like TELK and NFLD which have recently cratered. I am not against doing this: I found CPNLQ.PK at 20 cents this way last December, HLS 2 years ago at 28 cents, THLD in May at $3.50, etc.