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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • tredleon tredleon Apr 10, 2007 5:48 PM Flag

    Erbitux fails...

    in pancreatic cancer trial as a first-line treatment, in combination with Gemzar. While this shows that even currently approved chemo agents may not help in pancreatic cancer (therefore, just because Glufo may not work in pancreatic, it may show effectiveness in other cancers?), I think this doesn't bode well for the current trial with Glufo as a first-line treatment (i.e. pancreatic cancer may just be too tough for any chemo agent to impact survival)? And unfortunately, I think that will be the next trial result announced (Q3 is it?).

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    • I see a take over bid coming!!!!!!!!!

    • Why do you think there are people buying? I was thinking that maybe people believe that, since there was an improvement in the last trials where they did not reach their endpoints but did increase the survival time by 21 days, that chances would be good that , in combination with Gemzar, they could reach their endpoints which might not be such a hurdle to overcome, i.e., not a 50% increase in survival time. They are hoping that with Erbitux failing any improvement might lead to FDA approval as Tarceva did.

      I am trying to figure what is pushing this stock, speculation from new people that have not been burned, buy-out, or fundamentals not known to the general public.

      By the way, I bought last year in June at $3.50,rode it down on the first drop and sold last month 80% of my holdings(50k shares) at $1.50 on the second drop. I still hold 10k.

      Thanks for your comments.

      P.

      • 1 Reply to pmksun2000
      • I always believed there was a better chance of success in the current P2 trial (in combination with Gemzar) than the recently failed P3 trial (end-stage for those who failed first-line Gemzar therapy), but bought a small position in the fall of last year anyway. I'm still trying to decide whether I want to add to my position - the preliminary P2 results are showing good "objective response", but survival is the only thing that matters, and there may not be much of a connection between shrinking/halting the growth of tumors and extending patients lives? But I keep thinking that the bar is so low (even a 2-3 month impact on survival would be significant) that Glufo just might pull it off. This one is definitely a crapshoot, but if it helps in pancreatic cancer, I think it will most likely be successful as a combination agent in other solid tumor treatments, so there is good upside potential.

 
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