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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • tredleon tredleon Nov 6, 2007 8:49 PM Flag

    Here's the Problem...

    Take a look at the slides in the R&R presentation on TH-302. As they hi-lited in the presentation, the animal studies showed dramatic complete response rates (i.e. cures) in several cancer types when TH-302 was used in combination with the current standard chemo agent - he quotes the researcher saying they have never seen cure rates like this for any cancer treatments. However, the survival rates for TH-302 on a stand-alone basis were worse than standard chemo as a single agent. This makes complete sense - TH-302 targets one part of the tumor (the hypoxic region), while standard chemo attacks the other part (near the blood vessels), so they work best in combination. The problem is that THLD may not have enough cash to get TH-302 past the phase-I trials (dosing and safety) and into the combo trials where this 1+1=3 effect can be shown. That is why they are trying to partner Glufo - if they can get enough cash out of partnering Glufo to get them past a phase 2 combo study with TH-302, then they might be able to salvage some value for us shareholders. If not, then somebody will probably be picking up TH-302 for a song! Unfortunately, in the mean time the news flow will probably not be good - you are not going to see any dramatic news out of the single-agent TH-302 trial - remember, nobody cares about partial response rates (i.e. tumor shrinkage) - Glufo can shrink the hypoxic region of a tumor on its own, but that doesn't mean the patient will survive longer, and the same probably goes for TH-302 - you aren't going to have miracle cures coming out of the single-agent trials. So, what do you do - hold on and hope they can partner Glufo, or bail out now? It's a pickle!!

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    • look for a drop to .54 today or tomorrow. :o((

    • Perfect analysis.

      I am beyond feeling I am in a pickle, though, on what to do. I've lost so much, but make tons in my business that I have written this off mentally as a life experience. Most people are far worse off than me.

      That said, mgmt has indicated a HUGE change in how long the cash will last: Q1 2009 instead of mid-2008. That's gigantic. So, the "pickle" jar has just been pushed away a little.

      If 2DG and TH-302 work, they have 3 drugs they can partner on. Heck, Elan only gets half of Tysabri revenue (their ONLY drug, splitting rev with Biogen) and Elan went from $3 to $23 in just about 1 year. There are many examples like this. I find it hard to believe Threshold, with 3 viable drugs, will go to zero.

      Is Selick inept? We'll see soon.

      Yesterday's price action? I saw 10,000 share blocks at the ask for the past few days. Someone wants out. That's probably some of the 1MM shares or so that were bought just weeks ago at $1.20. 50% loss, but they are short term traders who were hoping for a huge pop that did not happen. They're leaving. But again, I do not expect the PPS to recover from here until we get some very, very good news.

      Maybe PR's will start coming out now, after they announce earnings tonight (quiet period over by tomorrow)?

      My wife and I have decided not to watch or worry about this stock any more. Man, they did a number on me! But heck, I may be their biggest fan in just months.

      We'll see...

      • 1 Reply to SMAC693
      • I agree - if they can find a way to hang on long enough to generate solid combo data for TH-302, it will be a huge win for the shareholders. One angle on "the pickle" that I didn't note was that any potential partner on Glufo would have to look at TH-302 as a potential competing agent - the animal data on TH-302 is significantly better than Glufo and is targeted for the same solid tumor applications. So, they will either have to partner them both under the same agreement, or give the Glufo partner some kind of option on TH-302? In any case, I hope they find a way to make it work - the data does look awfully dramatic and the concept (of attacking cancer in combination from a number of different angles) seems to be the future.

        PS - My sense is 2DG is being put on the back burner, while they focus on TH-302. They didn't even mention it in the conference, and they don't have the resources to do clinical trials in more than one agent.

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