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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • mrbenz016 mrbenz016 Feb 13, 2008 1:12 PM Flag


    These are two hot bio share i have and i believe i will be seeing some green soon...load them before they are too expensive

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    • How's yer short doin taday, ya kunt?

    • Dude - you need a serious lesson in the concept of a "value play". Take the numbers you are touting on THLD - a 43% discount to cash value, based on the $30M in cash they last reported on 9/30. Here is the reality - they had $30M in cash at 9/30, but they also had $5M in payables and accrued liabilities (exclude the deferred revenue and rent, as those are not true liabilities that will be paid in cash), so your real value at 9/30 is $25M. The company has been spending about $7M per quarter, but they have cut back lately, so say they will only spend $5M for Q4 and Q1-'08. So by the end of March, the true "value" left will be approximately $15M, or $0.40 per share. The discount to value you think exists is all in your head. I'm not saying that any one of the stocks you are in cannot recover and generate huge returns, but it will only happen if there is true value in their technology/pipeline - you are not going to find it on the balance sheet, so quit looking. The only valuable information in the financials is how long is it going to take for them to burn through their existing cash given their current spend rate - that gives you an idea of the window the company has to generate data, a partnership, etc. that will drive the stock price. Wake up!

    • Son, THLD has something different than cash value and all the fundamental bulshit you read about. This little BIO is very different than any other BIO you can read about. We are talking about CURE here. Do you understand? CURE CANCER..... do you understand that son?

    • Yes, I am buying those companies with big discount from its cash value. It is a value play. As we know, over 90% of the biotech companies are failed their trials. Look at ONXX today, this stock was $60 last month. It is at $33 today. Another one is VNDA. The stock price was over $20 last year. It is under $5 now.

      So, it is safe to invest money with those companies with a lot of cash with NO DEBT. I know they will surive in a short and intermediate term. It will have a big jump from any good news. Also, a lot of private companies like to buy these types of companies to be going public (called reverse merger).

      Right now, SNUS has a discount of 43%. THLD has a discount of 37% and NSTR has a discount of 35%. Normally, we should see these discounts would not last too long. The stock price will be close or above their cash values within 2-3 months.

    • By the end of the trading day, we have

      THLD is at $0.41, unchange
      SNUS is at $0.46, up 2 cents
      NSTR is at $1.67, up 10 cents

      I was surprised to see THLD closing at 41 cents. I saw it trading at 0.415 BID and 0.42 ASK the entire day. Someone is selling a lot of shares at 42 cents.

    • Ok Tredleon I guess we agree there´s only one thing that can spike PPS and that´s a partnership in order for THLD to survive.

      If you ask me, based on their product data and some long hours of DD since last year, I see no reason why they should not partner Glufos & 2DG with a big player. But we´ll just have to wait and see. The market has the last call.
      Good luck Tredleon!
      For the hope many thousands, I trully hope THLD can manage to make to the finals. They deserve it, and so does modern medicine.

    • I was commenting in general on his investment targets, and while I have a small position in THLD and hope they are able to survive and realize the potential value from their pipeline, it is longshot. As you indicated, there is a "possible" partnership for Glufo, but the clinical results cannot be considered "robust" and if some company is interested in pursuing the hypoxia angle, why would they invest in Glufo, when TH-302 appears to have much more potential (based on the pre-clinical data). In other words, I believe there is value in the pipeline, but the company doesn't have enough cash to realize that value in the clinic and they don't have the leverage to negotiate a valuable (i.e. substantial up-front money)partnership on Glufo, so the most likely scenario is a buyout. The question is whether they can generate any meaningful clincal data on TH-302 before they put the company on the block?

    • Why sentence THLD as a death-bed biotech stock?
      Are you also kidding?

      After they passed two face 2 trials on GLUFOS with good results and a "possible" partnership with anyone to share the only hypoxya drug that has reliable studies so far, and has also resulted effective in both trials, why do you assume they will "NOT" find a partner?

      The only "dead-bed" thing I see here is PPS, whitch by the the way could tripple anytime.

    • You're kidding, right? Your investment thesis is to buy death-bed biotech stocks based on their discount to a cash number? Unless there is any inherent value in their technology/pipeline, the cash will ultimately evaporate (or they will dilute the hell out of the stock with a desperate offering of new shares)? If you are counting on the "market" coming to it's senses and bidding the price up to the cash balance(which by the way is 5 months old at this point), you need a serious reality check. Unless any of these companies generate substantive clinical data over the next year, they will be trading at half of where they are by this time next year.

    • I also hold both these. Both are trading well below cash and book value, and all indications are present for a squeeze. Neither of them are anywhere near bankruptcy, and, in my opinion, are signifcantly undervalued due to the general bearish trend for ALL bio companies. This will change... it always does. I'm not sure why the first reply is so negative. He must be in the "buy hi, sell low" club.

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