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Threshold Pharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • arnelee1988 arnelee1988 Feb 22, 2012 4:13 PM Flag

    ONly a phase II data

    come on, guys. is only a phase two data....sell short when you can!! i short 6500 shares so far.

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    • Merck KGaA will pay 70% of worldwide development costs for TH-302. AND $25 million upfront along with the $20, million milestone payment due with the Pancreatic results.


      "Threshold retains the option to co-commercialize TH-302 allowing the company to participate in up to 50% of the profits in the United States based on certain revenue tiers. Outside of the United States, Merck KGaA will be solely responsible for the commercialization of TH-302 with Threshold receiving a tiered, double-digit royalty on sales in these territories."

      Merck could avoid $500 million in milestone payment and the large royalty payments with a buyout prior to the coming ASCO presentation.

    • arnelee, dude youre pretty much announcing that youre an unsuccessful trader/investor. with whatever coin you got left, go buy a clue.

    • TH-302 shrinks all tumors including brain tumors...Why do you think Merck Germany stepped in so soon!!

    • .... Lmfao, wow big spender, a whole 6500 shares short, what a moron........ 6500 shares short, aaaaaaaaahhhh hahahahaha!

    • sxsess Feb 22, 2012 4:40 PM Flag

      Son you have a lot to learn, but thats how you learn. When you get burned on this, if your even short, hopefully you will educate yourself in this arena before becoming successful. There is much more to this than it being in Ph2. Watch and learn while you lose.

    • Proof of Concept? You Bet!

      By Brian Orelli, Ph.D. | More Articles
      February 22, 2012 | Comments (1)

      Phase 2 trials are often called the "proof of concept" stage, but some phase 2 trials are run better than others. Having the confidence to infer a successful phase 3 trial from positive phase 2 results is only possible if the phase 2 trial was run properly. Otherwise it isn't really "proof," now is it?

      Threshold Pharmaceuticals' (Nasdaq: THLD ) phase 2b trial of TH-302 in pancreatic cancer is a textbook example of how to run a proof of concept trial. Investors seem to have noticed, sending shares up more than 40% yesterday and another 15% today.

      First and foremost, a placebo control is essential to know whether a drug works. Single-arm trials that compare the drug to some historical measure of efficacy are difficult to interpret because you don't know if the trial enrolled the same types of patients as the historical average. And cancer treatments are continually getting better, so historical averages tend to be behind the curve.

      Combining TH-302 with Eli Lilly's (NYSE: LLY ) Gemzar compared to Gemzar alone resulted in a 63% improvement in progression-free survival, a measure of how long it takes for a tumor to begin growing again. And nearly twice as many patients responded to the combination as those who took Gemzar alone.

      The other thing to look for in a proof of concept trial is a dosage effect. If the higher dose works better, it's extra evidence that the results didn't happen by chance. Running multiple doses in a phase 2 trial isn't always possible, especially in cancer trials where the maximum tolerability might be discovered in a phase 1 trial, but Threshold was able to test two doses and claimed that the higher dose resulted in greater efficacy than the lower dose, although it's saving the details for a medical meeting.

      Based on the phase 2 data, I think it's a safe bet to assume a phase 3 trial will be successful. The key thing investors should confirm is that Threshold and its partner Merck KGaA (OTC: MKGAY) enroll the same types of patients in the phase 3 trial as they did in the phase 2 trial that was just reported. Aeterna Zentaris (Nasdaq: AEZS ) and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: KERX ) , by contrast, only enrolled a subset of patients that were enrolled in the phase 2 trial into the phase 3 trial for their colon cancer drug perifosine, which has investors feeling a little uneasy as we approach the trial results expected in the next month or so.

    • 214 patient randomized controlled Phase 2b, large trial and the extra money spent here to do a larger trial bodes well for what to expect from a Phase III trial. A lot of risk taken out of success.

      "statistically significant (p = 0.005). The response rate in the combination arms was 22% compared to 12% in the gemcitabine alone group. Results also demonstrated greater efficacy in the higher TH-302 dose group compared to the lower dose group."

      p = 0.005 - 0.05 is considered winner in these trials. A very impressive phase II. Merck must be very happy with what they are now seeing.

2.99-0.01(-0.33%)Oct 17 4:00 PMEDT

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