PE ratio of 4? I suggested that this would happen months ago and practically got laughed off the message board. Here we go to the mid 20s as predicted. Hold on for the ride.
Uniwizards post said (Sep 21):"Don't buy now!!!
De will be lower today and will go down lower by
X-Mas."Well, De went up today. No one, not even a "wizard",
can predict small movements in individual stock
prices. I really enjoy visiting this board to get the
point of view of others who use, sell, or build DE
products, and those who understand the economics of the
whole agricultural system. I'm learning more every day.
I'm in it for the long haul, and would like to hear
more from the informed investors. Invest well.
have any idea how much Deere equiptment that they
currently have oon lease to the farmers.. Was talkin to a
few from Mn. this weekend and they say a lot of
farmers just lease new equiptment for 2-3 yrs then return
to deere. thanks
Currently dairy farm profit margins are better
than any other time in the past (have you noticed the
price of cheese and butter increases over the past few
months?-they will stay there for several more months to come).
Cows eat a lot of crops and I know for a fact that
many dairy farms have been struggling over the past
few years with older worn-out machinery, unable
financially to replace it. Dairy farmers will spend some of
this new unexpected windfall on new equipment before
the end of the year to reduce taxes. John Deere also
has a the best quality and repution with their
complete line of machinery. Farmers that own own this
stuff are very loyal to this company. I would hope that
this will push DE shares up a bit.
The wife and i own 300 shares just bought 200 at
35 .. i am trying to fig. what level to buy more as
i know that this co. will make a good long term
Thanks for input on costs per acre. with that as a
basis. it appears that ther will be plenty of time to
keep buying deere.
Also the fall harvesting got
started in the last few days..My father-in law. although
retired works for farmer in martin co.. Called and said
that soybeans that they were combining were 9-10 %
moisture already. Corn will start may be late next week or
at least in 10 days.. I suppose that this will
further push down cash prices....
The true cost of producing corn per acre will run
near and in cases over $350.00/acre. This takes into
account rent at or near $145-$150/acre, all input costs,
cost of capital, depreciation and some return to
labor. I am an agricultural banker and I also
and farm an 80 acres and lease machinery from my
father. I actually have a higher cost per acre than
listed above. I have calculated every cost even the
return to capital on a down payment for the land that
Regarding Deere stock. I
personally feel (IMHO) that this will
be a turnaround
stock, but the question is how low will it go before it
turns around. I realize it really depends on how fast
farm income increases. A good barometer to watch is
the CRB Index. It is at a critical juncture at 200.
It has gone down to this level a few times in a 27
year history, and then reversed and commodity prices
then went into a uptrend. The analysts of
News say it is at the bottom of its trend line. If it
breaks and goes below 200 and breaks resistance, then it
down to 160. If this were to happen, we
could see lower lows in corn, soybeans and wheat. Thus
far it has held near 200 and not
resistance, but as I said we are at a critical juncture.
Deere would definately rebound if the farm economy
improves, but there would obviously be some lag time. One
thing is for certain
Deere keeps good control of
inventory and I hear layoffs are or will be in the works at
Waterloo, Iowa and Moline, Illinois. The question is how
low will this stock go before it reaches a bottom? If
anyone can give me perspective relative to earlier
down cyles, this would be helpful
Deere will be
around when things improve. I am willing to place
bet on this company, but don't know if now is yet the
.......I live in Maryland and our state average
is $65 acre but our fields are small compared to
other places. Most guys around here are working angles
to get help. My neighbor has 142 acres and gets
payments from the state of $40,000 a year to be in the
Farm Preservation program. I just got my info packet
from the Nature Conservancy program. If I get approved
I'll get $200 month in property tax relief. A guy down
the road is working 1800 acres, but is a Massey
dealer, fertilizer dealer,seed dealer and lawn and garden
equip dealer. We don't have very many "pure farmers"
left.........so our John Deere buyers are mostly in
compact/utility tractors and riding lawn mowers......
I cannot supply all of the
information that you seek. However, perhaps I can provide
some insight into farming costs. In our area of
Illinois, a lot of the land is not cash-rented. It is
farmed on a crop-share basis. The operator and the
landlord go 50-50 on seed, fertilizer, and chemicals. The
operator supplies all of the equipment and labor, and
delivers the landlord's share to the storage facility. The
crop is shared 50-50. The landlord also pays for taxes
and capital expenses, such as tile repair and lime
(amortized on a 5-year basis).
Our farm is operated
this way, and it seems to work for both operator and
landlord. The main benefit to both parties is that there is
a sharing of risk. Actually, it seems to me that,
locally at least, most of the cash renters are the less
This message could go on for
pages but I'm an early-rising old coot.
I was talking about land rent only.. i talked to
another man from martin county mn. tonight.. he is
getting $127.50 per acre for cash rent.... on the land he
owns.. he told me of some land that was renting for
$140.00 per acre..
Is there any one on this message
board that could give me a accurate cost per acre of
the total cost of production on a per acre basis.. I
am guessing that $ 275-$$ 280. would br close.. the
big variable would be interest. and the cost of new
thanks in advance for info.