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Deere & Company Message Board

  • babbabooie1 babbabooie1 Sep 17, 1998 2:24 PM Flag

    Here we go folks .........

    PE ratio of 4? I suggested that this would happen months ago and practically got laughed off the message board. Here we go to the mid 20s as predicted. Hold on for the ride.

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    • Uniwizards post said (Sep 21):"Don't buy now!!!
      De will be lower today and will go down lower by
      X-Mas."Well, De went up today. No one, not even a "wizard",
      can predict small movements in individual stock
      prices. I really enjoy visiting this board to get the
      point of view of others who use, sell, or build DE
      products, and those who understand the economics of the
      whole agricultural system. I'm learning more every day.
      I'm in it for the long haul, and would like to hear
      more from the informed investors. Invest well.

    • It's quite obvious your not a dairy farmer from Wis., Mn., or any
      other dairy state. I sugest you call some of your dairy farmer
      friends and chat.

    • have any idea how much Deere equiptment that they
      currently have oon lease to the farmers.. Was talkin to a
      few from Mn. this weekend and they say a lot of
      farmers just lease new equiptment for 2-3 yrs then return
      to deere. thanks

    • Currently dairy farm profit margins are better
      than any other time in the past (have you noticed the
      price of cheese and butter increases over the past few
      months?-they will stay there for several more months to come).
      Cows eat a lot of crops and I know for a fact that
      many dairy farms have been struggling over the past
      few years with older worn-out machinery, unable
      financially to replace it. Dairy farmers will spend some of
      this new unexpected windfall on new equipment before
      the end of the year to reduce taxes. John Deere also
      has a the best quality and repution with their
      complete line of machinery. Farmers that own own this
      stuff are very loyal to this company. I would hope that
      this will push DE shares up a bit.

    • Don't buy now!!! De will be lower today and will go down lower
      by X-Mas. I'm looking at yearend to accumulate more if some
      stabilization happens.

    • The wife and i own 300 shares just bought 200 at
      35 .. i am trying to fig. what level to buy more as
      i know that this co. will make a good long term
      investment..

      Thanks for input on costs per acre. with that as a
      basis. it appears that ther will be plenty of time to
      keep buying deere.

      Also the fall harvesting got
      started in the last few days..My father-in law. although
      retired works for farmer in martin co.. Called and said
      that soybeans that they were combining were 9-10 %
      moisture already. Corn will start may be late next week or
      at least in 10 days.. I suppose that this will
      further push down cash prices....

    • The true cost of producing corn per acre will run
      near and in cases over $350.00/acre. This takes into
      account rent at or near $145-$150/acre, all input costs,
      cost of capital, depreciation and some return to
      labor. I am an agricultural banker and I also
      own
      and farm an 80 acres and lease machinery from my
      father. I actually have a higher cost per acre than
      listed above. I have calculated every cost even the
      return to capital on a down payment for the land that
      was purchased.

      Regarding Deere stock. I
      personally feel (IMHO) that this will
      be a turnaround
      stock, but the question is how low will it go before it
      turns around. I realize it really depends on how fast

      farm income increases. A good barometer to watch is
      the CRB Index. It is at a critical juncture at 200.
      It has gone down to this level a few times in a 27
      year history, and then reversed and commodity prices
      then went into a uptrend. The analysts of
      Bridge
      News say it is at the bottom of its trend line. If it
      breaks and goes below 200 and breaks resistance, then it
      could go
      down to 160. If this were to happen, we
      could see lower lows in corn, soybeans and wheat. Thus
      far it has held near 200 and not
      broken
      resistance, but as I said we are at a critical juncture.


      Deere would definately rebound if the farm economy
      improves, but there would obviously be some lag time. One
      thing is for certain
      Deere keeps good control of
      inventory and I hear layoffs are or will be in the works at
      Waterloo, Iowa and Moline, Illinois. The question is how
      low will this stock go before it reaches a bottom? If
      anyone can give me perspective relative to earlier

      down cyles, this would be helpful

      Deere will be
      around when things improve. I am willing to place
      a
      bet on this company, but don't know if now is yet the
      time????

    • .......I live in Maryland and our state average
      is $65 acre but our fields are small compared to
      other places. Most guys around here are working angles
      to get help. My neighbor has 142 acres and gets
      payments from the state of $40,000 a year to be in the
      Farm Preservation program. I just got my info packet
      from the Nature Conservancy program. If I get approved
      I'll get $200 month in property tax relief. A guy down
      the road is working 1800 acres, but is a Massey
      dealer, fertilizer dealer,seed dealer and lawn and garden
      equip dealer. We don't have very many "pure farmers"
      left.........so our John Deere buyers are mostly in
      compact/utility tractors and riding lawn mowers......

    • DK,

      I cannot supply all of the
      information that you seek. However, perhaps I can provide
      some insight into farming costs. In our area of
      Illinois, a lot of the land is not cash-rented. It is
      farmed on a crop-share basis. The operator and the
      landlord go 50-50 on seed, fertilizer, and chemicals. The
      operator supplies all of the equipment and labor, and
      delivers the landlord's share to the storage facility. The
      crop is shared 50-50. The landlord also pays for taxes
      and capital expenses, such as tile repair and lime
      (amortized on a 5-year basis).

      Our farm is operated
      this way, and it seems to work for both operator and
      landlord. The main benefit to both parties is that there is
      a sharing of risk. Actually, it seems to me that,
      locally at least, most of the cash renters are the less
      skilled operators.

      This message could go on for
      pages but I'm an early-rising old coot.


      Regards,

      Carbomeister

    • I was talking about land rent only.. i talked to
      another man from martin county mn. tonight.. he is
      getting $127.50 per acre for cash rent.... on the land he
      owns.. he told me of some land that was renting for
      $140.00 per acre..
      Is there any one on this message
      board that could give me a accurate cost per acre of
      the total cost of production on a per acre basis.. I
      am guessing that $ 275-$$ 280. would br close.. the
      big variable would be interest. and the cost of new
      tractors..
      thanks in advance for info.

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