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Cadence Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • dragan7777777777 dragan7777777777 Feb 16, 2011 3:42 PM Flag

    Let's try some "math"...

    Let's try some speculative math estimates for Q1. They supposed to have ER on March 4th ( or 15th? ). Would be 6-8 wks. First two-three weeks they had 60 hospitals on FL. That would hit their 2011 target ( 800-1000 hospitals ).

    Also, that could mean 120 hospitals, or more, in 6-8 wks. Those are large institutions. Each hospital could have ordered 10K vials Ofirmev, with possible some initial "stimulus" ( discount ).

    120 x 10K makes 1.2M vials, times 10 bucks, would be 12M gross sales for CADX. This cpould a bot too conservative, but not bad for the start. Break even in 2014? What a shorts BS....

    I know this is reading tea leaves. But, just to start from somewhere. We will have better picture when they report Q1. If numbers are much better, shorts will start felling the heat....

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    • abclodt@sbcglobal.net abclodt Feb 17, 2011 2:28 PM Flag

      why not wait until the 30`s

    • 10K vials is too many. We don't order that many of anyone product, let alone a new product. Maybe 10 cases of 24 vials at one time. These are large vials so space is an issue. What is the shelf life of the product? Anyone know.

      • 1 Reply to crawfordlong1815
      • The whole match is very speculative, but I do not think 10K vials is too much.

        Let's try with some assumptions. Again, I know, the whole thing is "reading tea leaves".

        Average Ofirmev dose would be 10 vials per patient ( two days therapy, and then switch to oral meds, in hospital, or at home ). Medium to large hospital has in average 10 ORs, if you take in account regular ORs, plus trauma, plus labour, plus burn unit, and so on. Each OR would have in average, let's say 5 patients per day. We could assume 1/2 of those 10 ORs will use Ofirmev....

        The "math" would be: 1 OR x 5 patients, 5 ORs 25 patients per day, times 25 days ( if we assume same "off" days " for weekend days ), would be 625 patients per month, times 10 vials per patient = 6.25K vials per one month. So bringing in 10K vials would not be that much...

        Still, this would mostly be for elective surgery, and where are emergency, or the fact that some ORs work extended hrs, or are busy almost 24x7. Plus, ICU, ER, medical, and pediatric patients...

        Shelf life question was asked at one of their conferences. If I remember correctly it is over 6 months. Anyway, it is long, and not an issue....

    • Dragan, good info, the real stock mover is what they will suggest March 15th ER, ie if more hospitals are on board the stock will rocket. I listened to the investor conference and the CEO Schroder was confident as far as the response from the doctors they spoke to.

      • 1 Reply to valuklick
      • Conference was good. Short, precise, on the point. CADX management has done own DD very well. Acceptance will be high. I can speak for anaesthesiologists, it will be 100% in 1-2 yrs.

        He said that 90% of their reps had a job ( employed by big pharma ), and they gave up their jobs to join Cadence. Plus, 70% of those reps will cover the same "territory" ( hospitals ), they were working with in previous job. Those reps are precious.

        One more detail. NSADS are not supposed to be given to patients under 17 yrs of age. Ofirmev is registered for 2 yrs, and older. CADX will submit to FDA application for neonates, after some smaller clinical trial ( FDA has left this open to them in terms of timeframe, and number of patients. ). He said 40-50 new papers coming out in two months of this year about acetaminophen safety, efficacy.

        I thought I have heard ER will be on March 4, but not sure about this, Yahoo says March 15....

 
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