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International Stem Cell Corporation Message Board

  • rktplt rktplt Feb 10, 2012 2:30 PM Flag

    Imminent Warrant Expiration

    The old Brookstreet warrants with a strike price of 56 cents expire on 2/12/12. That will clear a certain amount of overhang. No idea of course what percentage had been previously exercised, but as of Sunday, any warrant holders who didn't exercise before ISCO tanked below 56 cents are SOL.

    Notice the meager little pathetic attempt at a rally a few weeks ago and when the stock did close above 56 cents one day, the MMs, Aspire, "they," whoever had the ability and interest in tamping things down, did so immediately and vehemently. Certainly other elements at play here, but this warrant overhang is one factor.

    Not saying the company itself is involved with anything untoward, but depending how many outstanding warrants were still out there, it was definitely in the company's interest to not have the stock price above 56 cents until 2/12. They've been very quiet with the last few months. Would not surprise me at all that starting next week we start hearing things again.

    All of this smells of gross manipulation. As a long-term holder, if this is a consequence somehow of the favorable financing situation with Aspire that will be positive in the long-term driving toward break-even EBITDA, guess I can live with it. In the short term though, a bit of rigged chicken poop bingo going on: someone's holding all the chickens, moving them over their preferred numbers, and letting go of the sphincters on their own timeframe for their own interests. Just hope that in the long run those interests line up with the interests of us long-term little guy retail investors.

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    • I'm always amazed at the number of rocket scientists visiting the Yahoo msg boards....quite an elite crowd we have here. Fact is, I'm a rocket scientist too and I've noticed that it actually hinders my investing abilities. Sometimes I forget that the distance from .56 to zero is exactly the same as the distance from .43 to zero (or for that matter, .01 to zero)...i.e. -100%.

    • >>The old Brookstreet warrants with a strike price of 56 cents expire on 2/12/12. That will clear a certain amount of overhang. No idea of course what percentage had been previously exercised, but as of Sunday, any warrant holders who didn't exercise before ISCO tanked below 56 cents are SOL.

      How are they SOL? Their options to buy at $.56 expired, but they can go in the market and buy at $.43. The ones who are SOL are the people who exercised the warrants or are otherwise long.

      That one-year is one fugly chart. My guess is management would have loved the cash from a warrant exercise, despite the dilution. They can always just grant themselves more options.

      • 1 Reply to anotherdumguy
      • I should've been more specific: SOL for the cashless warrant exercise provision where number of shares = # warrants x(pps at close the day before exercise - .56)/.56. Thus pps @ or below .56 = SOL.

        Definitely true that if you believe in the science and biz plan, .43 is a great entry price and a better deal than having exercised the warrants under the cash provision of #shares = # warrants but you pay .56/share.

    • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Feb 10, 2012 5:12 PM Flag

      rk,
      good analysis.
      except there's nothing un-toward about any of it.
      this is the game.
      to put it simply if aspire can push isco into getting capital from it by keeping brookstreet on the bench..it will.
      the fact that this play might shaft various retail holders is....so what?
      unless ur an aspire or brookstreet client, u get nothing to say about it.
      it's in isco's corporate self-interest to have the warrants strike..if the alternative is to issue shares < 9/16.
      one of the f/a reasons for creating wts is to reduce the number of necessary seats at the table.
      another is to ensure capital inflows to those making their milestones, since milestones are cheaper than tombstones.

      with all due respect, ever since that "thumb" thing came along, change is gnerally the result of gross manipulation.

      • 1 Reply to baltbear
      • Thanks for chiming in Balt! I've appreciated your insight and commentary the last three years or so I've been following this board and was hoping you'd have a response for my rare post. I'm a pretty analytical guy but my professional field is (literally)rocket science which I find much easier, or at least more deterministic, than this stuff! Good to have a pro critique my less than totally rigorous swag made with very incomplete data.

        Been a long-term ISCO holder starting with the Brookstreet PPM over 5 years ago, have added on the open market with an average cost basis not too much above current pps. Convinced I bought and hold for the right reasons: believe in the science and biz plan (aka prospects for EBITDA as I've seen you reinforce over and over!). Just frustrated with the wild ride and downtrodden current state.

        Have you taken a look at Advaxis (ADXS) in the cancer immunotherapy field Balt? Very compelling story, science appears to be proving out, interesting biz approach to target partnerships for their different constructs once they've gotten through phase 1 and 2 clinical trials. I put some risk capital in there too applying my best due diligence efforts, would love to hear a Balt-take on it.

 
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