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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • pauloo47474747 pauloo47474747 Sep 12, 2002 2:36 PM Flag


    so does anyone have a guess where the bottom is? thanks

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    • Our TAs say ACAS' chart is one of the ugliest they're following........

      money is flowing out of this security like there's no tomorrow......

      and on big volume too......

      Target: $12.75

      • 1 Reply to corp_gold
      • "ACAS' chart is one of the ugliest...." Yep. Couldn't agree more. Its been somewhat painful. I never thought it would go this low, but it has and it hasn't come back anywhere near as quickly as I'd anticipated.
        However, there are some fundamental factors that allow me to be very patient:
        1) Fundamentals in the company's business are sound. If we bought a stock for short-term gain, shorts have had the best of it. But if we were investing in a business, its doing well! In the short-term, stocks are a popularity contest, in the long-term a weighing event.
        2) Insiders are not selling.
        3) Our DRIP dividends will be getting more bang for the buck, by golly, if the stock stays depressed. I can live with getting more ACAS at a discount!
        4) Dividend is secure, with every likelihood of growing. The share price will eventually follow suit.
        5) Short-squeeze possibilities have a lot of us shareholders drooling. It could happen.
        6) Allied (ALD) is a few weeks ahead of us in this game. They've weathered okay and their shorts look in plenty of danger. The two stocks like to trade in tandem, and that divergence has been around too long.
        7) Between Allied and ACAS, there is a strong possibility that some very interesting law suits against unethical (but commonly practiced) short sellers might yield some very interesting returns for shareholders. There's triple indemnity for conspiracy cases. Think about it, Cramer, Greenlight, et al! Allied didn't hire Lanny Davis to do nothing.
        8) If the stock does go down to $12.75, I'll buy some more, thankyou! "If Mr. Market behaves irrationally, then take advantage of his irrationality."

    • Paul,
      I defer the fundamental analysis to posters like JJR and others. I subscribe more to technical analysis. Being said, studying charts based on moving averages 1,3,5 years, I see downside support at 19.75/share and upside resistance at 26.50/share over next 6 months. I think we are approaching an excellent entry point barring further negative comments. I believe Herb and others have about ran out of ammo.

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