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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • comewithmeinaz comewithmeinaz Nov 17, 2003 4:43 PM Flag

    Major resistance @ 27.60

    I believe 27.60 marks a major point of resistance. Once the stock goes above that then it drops below a 10% yield which may cause some investors to go elsewhere. I will not invest more money above that point unless the whole market rises with ACAS.

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    • Is this still a good resistence point?

    • friend there is a million retail investors all over the world with level 2. I had it with tradestation. All I can say is big deal. The bids and offers disappear and re appear so fast you cant possibly keep up with it. Besides, unless you are daytrading what are you gonna do with the info. Save a penny or 2 on a share..."if" you are lucky? Half the time they are baiting you. I know. Ive done some daytrading in my time.

    • "Once the stock goes above that then it drops below a 10% yield which may cause some investors to go elsewhere."

      Ah, we were so young and naive in 2003.

    • WHen you said:

      "first investment is matched 401K, next is Roths, next is stocks or mutuals."

      You missed a step or two. I would further refine your fine statement to include:

      first investment is matched 401K, next is Roths, NEXT IS UNMATCH 401K, NEXT DEDUCTABLE IRA's, NEXT NON-DEDUCTABLE IRA's, next is stocks or mutuals.

      Not that everyone can finance all the above but it's a worthwhile target target.


    • >Exactly! Buying ACAS allows me to do the same >thing the big boys are doing. Investment >opportunities not available to a retail >account such as myself.

      Don't ever think ya have the information the big boys have. Do you pay for level two? I haven't yet, but will probably do it when I retire, maybe.

      Do you know who is on the buy side or who is on the sell side? I haven't gotten level two cause from what what I know it doesn't always tell ya the other side, and I think volume will give ya a hint on that. Brokers and such have that and no matter how good ya get, knowing how the other side will play is real nice to know.

      Individual investors will always be at a disadvantage. The best thing on being dumb, is the ones that really know stuff seem to screw up more than those that don't have a clue and that is why individual investors can make money in owning a stock vs a mutual.

      Don't ever think ya will ever do the same as the big boys on investments but always remember they, may thoughts, seem to be wrong more than right.

      Good luck to ya, if ya be young, first investment is matched 401K, next is Roths, next is stocks or mutuals.

    • Exactly! Buying ACAS allows me to do the same thing the big boys are doing. Investment opportunities not available to a retail account such as myself.

      Now add the fact that Philip Harper verifies I have made a good choice and my confidence increases.

    • >ACAS is not a scam. Simply put, ACAS is a way >for us smaller investors to get involved in >bigger investments that we would never <otherwise be able to.

      For ya, this is a great learning exprience, learn if ya win or loose and if ya loose learn.

      As far as the new player in the market. When you can't afford to loose all in an individual stock, buy mutuals. That was the mistake I made when I bought my first individual shares of a company. If I had done mutuals at the time I first investested in a stock with a broker I'd be retired by now. Over the years, I have lost a ton on learning experiences.

      I remember the time I was still trying to do even lots, now if it is 100 shares here, it is play money. If ya can't loose all, as a young kid ya probobably are best off on mutuals and doing the F500. Risk is real, and I have lost more money than I would like to think on learning.

      I know too many people that put all their stuff into savings at 1% annually with no risk and I pumped all I invested every month into the market over the last three years. I did trades when the ability to do them made sense. I am up almost up 100% this year and this stock will be another winner I expect, but not near 100%, 30% annualized would be real nice.

      For any new player in the market, do 401K first, second is Roths, then play with the rest. That is my thoughts and if someone thinks that is wrong, go for giving advice. I do take tax considerations on any buy or sell I do.

      Good luck to all.

    • >I believe 27.60 marks a major point of >resistance. Once the stock goes above that >then it drops below a 10% yield

      Sorry but 10% is a fearful number for me on a dividend, it is a high risk one. I think the averge REIT with a mutual is 6% return or lower, and that is significantly above average rates on dividends and MM accounts.

      I know resistance, but with 25% short and seeing that every time this one downtics, it is with volume, I don't think the shorts are done. I love that we seem to be setting a price in the 27's and each time it goes down with volune, it goes back up with small buys.
      We are setting a good base at $27 bucks and I don't think there is much covering on the shorts yet. The 27's is being bought at a daily average of about 600K and those won't sell easily at a loss. Every day there will be less sellers for gains, without bad news.

      For me the risk on this one is the over market dividend, and why someone is continuing to sell into the bids. I Also am falling in love with it, and that is a bad thing. The volume trading is setting a good base with the new owers.

      Everything I have eaver learned from past investments that cratered would place this one as one that might do the same. Higher than market dividends, huge short and such. Other side is a new placement that was done at pretty much at market, and the stock actually diped that day below the new stock issue price but recovered.

      Good luck to all, but I still think there is a 25% short and resistance goes away with that type of volume on the buy side, sans bad news.

      >I will not invest more money above that point >unless the whole market rises with ACAS.

      Based on what I see, I'd jump on this one for a few hundred more shares. With the trading and last earnings, and history, $30 to $35 bucks seems easy. I wouldn't invest heavily unless ya can aford to go to zero though. For me, it seems to be a strong buy.

      • 2 Replies to MeccaSH
      • Some people may think that a higher dividend indicates more risk but I think that is false. You have to look deeper into the financials instead of judging a stock solely on the dividend. I know riskier stocks that pay no dividends.

        As for the resistance @ 27.60, I'm not saying we won't go above it. I just feel that if we do go above it may be hard for ACAS to stay at 28, 29, or 30. The next major resistance level I believe would be around $30.66.

      • Mecca maybe you and the catlady can get a group rate. Mecca TRY to focus.

        Don't get me wrong you seem like a nice guy, smart, experienced, and well versed in options too, but you post messages that contradict yourself. Please try to focus.

        The absorbtion of the most recent offering is rocking the shorts world. These offering were their escape hatch. They must have felt they could cover at a discount by flashing their cash at an offering. This last one was big and they found their escape hatch locked so expect covering and the price to rise. $30 by 12/31 no problem.

    • You might want to review ACAS's dividend history since the '97 IPO (see website, Has it increased or decreased? Do you anticipate that in the future the dividend will increase or decrease? Do you understand how a BDC works? ACAS is still in a major portfolio growth phase. We have no '04 guidance yet for annual dividends, but I anticipate WELL over $3 a share, including the year-end "bonus", compared to a total dividend of 2.79-2.87 for '03.
      And tell me where else you are going to get a current dividend over 10% that is growing annually? I would like to do some DD...

    • Your time frame is too short. Many thought reit's would never have the yields they now have.

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