I bought my first ACAS in the middle of July of 2002. If you look at historical prices, the price was favorable but not stellar. I bought most of my stake in the last weeks of September of that year, but I've always kept a special spreadsheet to track the yield of that initial july purchase.
As I check it today, that purchase has an annualized return of a little more than 20%. In that same time frame, the S&P500 returned about 8.5% annualized. So even a poorly timed purchase of ACAS beat the S&P500 by a little less than 12%.
This stock can be extremely forgiving to an untimely long.
But the real point is, pretty much 100% of the time I've owned this company, there has been one or several idiot longs popping off about how it was such a great short. Every single one of them doesn't know their posterior from a hole in the ground, folks. Because just as this company is extremely forgiving of an untimely long, it will punish a short at any time...and it will absolutely destroy an untimely short.
Recent shorts fall into the latter category.
I can't bear to watch the slaughter.
No, I've never run a simulation, I don't feel I need to. As I said, I "DCA" as it is. When we're moving lower, I weight my buys a bit more (the initial mistake I referred to was not doing so even more during the recent visit to the mid-20's). During recent moves up like this one (and the last one pushing 35, when I started buying less), I weight my buys a bit less until I'm sure the move is confirmed.
Depending on your tax situation (long term - short term gains) I would reduce both to 25%. Then I would add to your positions in TMA, IMH, ALD, and MCGC (or start positions) to about 5-7% each; and/or buy some tax-free muni bond closed-end funds that are trading at discount to NAV.
Shorts rarely make much money in the long run unless they are full time and way smarter than the average. This is still a buy for me (down from strong buy), but I wish I had bought a lot more when I did at $27. In the past, whenever ACAS invests it ends up with good returns--smart people are makng the decisions there. Insider buyng is a good sign virtually always
When the amateurs starting shorting any stock or the market, that is usually the time to buy.
No, you were right initially. There are several idiot longs.
I'm one of them, considering how many more shares I should have than I currently have....I was too slow in buying more recently when it was in the 20's, thinking that it was going to get to $25 and it never did.