I agree. If you look at the dates of the purchases through exercising options and the dates of the sales, many were the same dates (balanced within about 10,000 shares). In the first six months of 2007, insiders exercised options at a mean pps of $30.29, and sold at retail at a mean pps of $46.77, for an immediate profit near $3 million. From March through May 2007, they also purchased an additional 133,500 shares at a mean pps of $42.73. I have no axe to grind. These are just the data in the table.
In what way have they been wrong? If they know they are acquiring shares at bargain prices that implies that they know the shares are worth more, not that they necessarily know when the prices will bottom.
If you buy shares at $28 and the next day the shares trade at $26, but over the next 5 years you collect $20 in dividends and eventually sell the shares at $55, were you wrong because you bought at $28 rather than $26?