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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • skucount skucount May 9, 2011 8:55 PM Flag

    Who is the next ACAS?????

    Ok value investors. Who is the next ACAS?

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    • As in a REIT? or the potential bagger scenario?

      The are numerous short plays that I like none are REITs but offer volilaty:

      Chbt- quite volitile Q-Q easy 50-80% changes.

      SVU is another play to the upside. Though the long term outlook maybe in question.

      SCON- This may have potential in the 2G, HTS (High tempiture Semiconductors) Not a fully developed technology but the it is nearing huge cost savings over tradition copper wire transmittion lines and various other electric conduit needs. It still cost 5-8 times that of copper but the 2G product can move 100 times the electrical flow of the same size copper. If this technology proves fiesable on the grand scale this would certainly put a huge dent in the need contruct no power plants.
      SCON holds many patents but is by no means the holder of the power grail.

    • Here's a thought:

      Gramercy Capital Corp. is a commercial real estate finance and property investment company. It has two business units:

      (1) Finance, which focuses on the direct origination and acquisition of whole loans, subordinate interests in whole loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, CMBS and other real estate securities; and

      (2) Realty, which focuses on the acquisition and management of commercial properties net leased primarily to regulated financial institutions.

      The bad news is Realty just went into default on $790MM mortgage and mezzanine loans. The loans were from Citi, Goldman, SLGreen, KBS Debt Holdings and GSMC. Realty will continue to manage the properties but there is no financial management agreement in place (silver lining where they trade property&debt for prop mgt cash flow??). It appears the Realty division will disappear.

      Finance is in better shape, cash flow positive strictly from CDO’s and they have $200+MM cash. The CDO’s have negative book value because they were written down due to mark-to-market rules. However, they are still paying and non-collateralized. The question is how to value the stand alone finance division.

      As always in this situation, there is the possibility of pre-packaged BK. Another similarity, it has a high beta. Check the GKK YMB. It’s pretty good.

    • Yes, I'm watching NBG. From what I can tell they're getting tossed with the rest of the Greek bathwater, but I don't think the bottom is in yet.

      I'll restate that I like HHC. Very seasoned team in place with real skin in the game, and some utterly unreproducible assets. It's come up from where I bought it in December, but I don't think it's really started to move yet.

      I hold RAS.

      I hold FMCC, FMCKJ, and FMNA, but those are hero-or-zero plays.

      Finally, and this is less in the vein of "What's the next ACAS?" than "What's the next big thing? I forsee natural gas as a major vehicle fuel in the US in the next 20 years. I hold CHK and CLNE and watch FSYS and WPRT.

    • IMO

      Values like ACAS under $1 rarely come along and usually at or near market bottoms. I doubt there is anything out there with the potential and relative safety of ACAS in March 2009 (i.e. they were selling at a distressed price due to their debt covenants being broken -- but from a cash flow and interest coverage perspective they were in very good shape).

      Most very low priced, distressed stocks are distressed for VERY good reasons. They are not good businesses.

      At this phase of the market cycle I think the value plays are established businesses, that are relatively unloved, that can see strong margin improvement. The "recovery" company like ACAS or GGP phase is over.

      That said, I am all ears if someone can come up with a good one.

      • 1 Reply to rctrtx1
      • DRYS is a dry-bulk shipping company that has also become a drill-rig company. They made the move into drillships (had 2 and have added 4 more) at a time where becoming highly levered was not going to be appreciated. Cost of each rig c.600m and co. has hugely increased #shares to pay for them..intend to spin off drillship segment as separate entity and in advance of that sold 22%of that segment for 500million (the entire market cap of DRYS is less than 2B) Dry-bulk shipping is in the toilet but company fixed day-rates for this year (thus avoiding the plunge in the BDI). The CEO is just as unloved as Malon was in '09 but here's my summary 1)Revenue will double in next year and a half 2)pps/book <.5 3)banks willing to finance newbuildings 4)oil at $100plus for foreseeable future

    • Rait financial trust
      [ras] a buy at $2.20 a share

      i bought acas at $2.00 a share
      ras improves every quarter.
      ras will be $10.00 a share in a year
      my thoughts. check it out

    • ACAS. Not being facetious.

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