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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • engie095 engie095 Jan 31, 2012 9:37 PM Flag

    effect of NAV and NOI on stock price

    For reasons unrelated to investing I had to exit my ACAS position long ago (~$2 prices) and haven't kept up to date enough to have a feel for how NOI and NAV affect the stock price. My guess is that NOI has more of an impact, but NAV will have at least some. So, what are the guesses as to what will happen if ACAS announces, say, an NOI of $0.23 for Q4 and an NAV of $14? Those are my best guesses at the moment. I'm figuring they'll be on the high side of the NOI estimated analyst range, and recovered all of the 'loss' (unrealized) that brought NAV down last quarter.

    Do you think the stock will stay about the same, or perhaps jump up to $9.00 or $10.00? Why? (the why is what I'm most interested in)

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    • ACAS made it through 2011 quite well.

      The market is showing optimism; almost the same type of movements as a post recession market. MLPs are soaring and so too NASDAQ. Both together is a very positive sign (except for US bond holders).

      ACAS should move up nicely as long as there's no externality like Congress saying no to everything. Also, Q4 will be a huge impact negative or positive, not neutral. Hitting consensus will be a big positive.

      I'm a small holder now. Just stepped in as it was at the top of my watchlist after reloading early January.

      • 1 Reply to mo.scuba
      • Yeah, I think 2011 was good for ACAS, and 2012 and 2013 will be even better. I think management is setting the company up for some solid growth.

        Interesting that you think just hitting the consensus will be a big positive instead of neutral. Is that because it's giving confidence to the general public that ACAS isn't floundering?

        Best of luck to you. I'm a fellow long, and I'm considering playing around with some call options as we get close to the earnings announcement.

        Thanks for the feedback. This board and the Jaded Consumer are my go-to places for helping to understand the ACAS world.

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