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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • learning.trader learning.trader Apr 19, 2013 4:15 PM Flag


    Wow, even on such a large up day, the volume is anemic. It definitely seems like the biggest buyer is ACAS itself. Given the average price of $14.23, that means a large chunk (probably half) of it was purchased $14.23, and the remaining below.

    Therefore, approx. one half was probably bought after March 6 (until at most March 28th, when they announced), and I'm willing to guess the remaining were bought within the month prior. In other words, the buyback period is probably around 2 months long. But given the accounting treatment that is required, it's probably less than that. This also seems to match the run up that happened within that same period.

    In other words, if we take out the general market fluctuation, the main stock price driver is probably just ACAS itself. Which means this is just a generally unknown stock to most people. If we want people to buy this stock because of the fundamentals (i.e. approach its true price faster), then there needs to be more "marketing".

    On the other hand, this makes the next run up fairly predictable (barring any external forces) -- probably between early-May and mid/late-June.

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