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American Capital, Ltd. Message Board

  • thetechnology thetechnology Jun 25, 2013 1:00 AM Flag

    This is bothersome

    I made a post, but decided to table it for now. I would point out that Shanhai is down almost 4% at midnight. That unfortunately is dragging down all of Asia. I don'[t believe that Europe or the U.S. are going to like it much when they wake up.

    "The exit door is not that big and everyone's going at the same time," said Justin Lederer, strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York. "This is not just about a Treasury backup, this is a global, everyone-getting-out-of-everything."

    I would encourage everyone to keep some powder dry, it looks like we may get an excellent buying opportunity after some more short term pain.

    Best,
    thetechnology

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    • This appears to be an example of where it is dangerous to attempt to forecast the market. Granted, it isn't over until the fat lady sings but 11.82 appears to have been a buying opportunity.

    • In all respect, after 50 years of investing, I have yet to find anyone succeeding on a consistent basis with market timing. Clearly, the list of wealthiest individuals includes no timers. There are many wealthy investors including Mr. Buffet. No one knows what Mr. Market will do tomorrow. Tax laws and transaction costs are further headwinds for the market timer.

      Regarding ACAS, if you believe that the present price is too high then wait for your price but I would not base the decision on what you believe the market will do next week or next year.

      • 3 Replies to donedealer
      • In regard to ACAS, which doesn't correlate very well with the market, I agree with you, it is a difficult and not the most productive to do much trading in it. I do work hard to get on the right side of the longer trend Right now there are some not very subtle indications that it will be tough going for a while. How long? Does the bandaid get ripped off, or pulled off slowly?

        It is a copout and a rationalization to justify bad position taking by saying "I can't time the market" Whenever there is a buy or a sell, the market is being timed by somebody, it is just a matter of time frame. You time the market you just may have a longer time frame.

        In truth, riding the market up and down is not optimal, just as trading too often is also less productive.

        The 10 yr. is out of whack here, it needs to come back in 30 - 40 basis points. The stock market got very oversold short term we will get some type of an attempt at a bounce here, longer term we still have further to go lower. ACAS is interest rate sensitive, the 2 REITS even more so, that is why they have been pounded. Interest rates need to, and should go higher, depending on how the Fed manages that, in itself does not preclude the market from moving higher at the same time longer term.

        I held ACAS until recently, from early 2009. I will get back in when the time is right, I don't believe that time is now. The market has furthur to correct, ACAS will more or less follow it. I want to know how much damage there has been to both assets and earnings potential before I can decide whether I want to hold the stock again, and what I am willing to pay. I sincerely doubt that I am the only one with this attitude.

        Patience is the key, no need to guess here.

        Best wishes,
        thetechnology

      • Hi Donedealer:
        You reminded me of my father-in-law who bought 50 shares od Disney in 1960 for $28/share In about 3 months in had gone up to $35. He was so afraid of losing the $350 profit if the market went down he sold the 50 shares..
        Since that time those 50 Disney shares have split a few times and they have now become 19,776 shares that closed yesterday at $62.44 per share, waith a value of $1,234,813.40.

        Trading is not easy. sometimes it is better to just sit and wait.
        b&w

      • Words of wisdom to keep in mind!
        Respectfully

 
ACAS
15.57-0.22(-1.39%)Apr 28 4:00 PMEDT