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Sapient Corp. Message Board

  • ex_speculative_investor ex_speculative_investor Feb 28, 2002 11:02 AM Flag

    Update for Deathwatch

    Just so you know that my trades are above board, I will share with you my latest two. I still have not taken a position in SAPE, and recommend against doing for all others. The cash restructuring charge will take another $0.40 cents in intrinsic value from the company.

    I sold puts on KMP yesterday giving my self a purchase price of $29.20. The stock has plunged and I am getting hammered. I like the stock for the long term and will ride this out.

    I also bought OCA on on it's dip yesterday at roughly $24.40. It's a strong growth company at a good value that will trade to $35 within the next year.

    I am in the process of making one more trade on a thinly traded security that will return a fortune in the next 6 months. I will let you know about it when its done. I don't want the market moving on me just yet.

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    • ex_speculative_investor ex_speculative_investor Apr 18, 2002 12:06 PM Flag

      Thanks for the heads up. I saw the RAZF numbers and jump. I am still under the impression that sales are lagging at SAPE.

    • RAZF is still heading for their next phase of delisting on 5/15, but in the meantime RAZF debt exceeds assets, they owe 7.5 million in back payroll taxes, they made earnings of 2.4 Million due to an accounting adjustment from overestimated layoff and office closings from the prior quarter ......

      and the stock explodes from .15 to > .65 (>400%) in one day with incredible volume.

      The world is just crazy AND it shows that people are looking for any kind of good news.

      ----------------------

      I still believe that this entire sector is undervalued and the work is improving -- I have been getting requests for Project Managers every day for the past two weeks! Once the PM is hired, the next step is the Business/Systems Analysts and the Technical Architects ... and then developers/testers, etc. The good thing ... is that right now because we have kept overhead contained and we typically have longer term contracts ... my company will be cash flow positive and earnings positive for the next 7 quarters.

      IF SAPE could present positive earnings on May 2nd, they might jump out ahead of competitors as stock prices improve.

      It's a shame to see people burn money by betting on RAZF, but hey -- that's their problem. Maybe some of the profit taking will find it's way into real companies, but that's doubtful -- too many day traders.

    • 23 staffing business were sold or merged in the first quarter of 2002. This does not immediately impact SAPE --> It's just part of a larger trend :-)

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020415/dam055_1.html

      ==============================================

      Subj: Re: Update Industry Consolidation
      By: deathwatch_2002
      Date: 04/05/02 10:37 am

      VIAN and DVIN are merging

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020405/nyf040_1.html

      This is just one of a series of Delisting / M&A's that should take place over the next 3 -6 months.

      It's beautiful -- just beautiful!

      -----------
      Date: 03/19/02 03:12 pm

      IMO - RAZF, VIAN, SCNT are delisting over the summer. .... Industry consolidation is the guidance for the summer.

    • VIAN and DVIN are merging

      http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/020405/nyf040_1.html

      This is just one of a series of Delisting / M&A's that should take place over the next 3 -6 months.

      It's beautiful -- just beautiful!

      -----------
      Date: 03/19/02 03:12 pm

      IMO - RAZF, VIAN, SCNT are delisting over the summer. .... Industry consolidation is the guidance for the summer.

    • IMO - RAZF, VIAN, SCNT are delisting over the summer. RAZF does not have enough new business or repeat business to hit their numbers. RAZF should have warned when LNTE did -- RAZF did not warn because they are still selling shares of stock at an inflated price. RAZF does not have legs -- they have no cash, a negative (-0.08) book value, and lower volumes.

      LNTE just took a loss in the 4th quarter AND lowered guidance for the 1st quarter. The cash is much lower than the numbers that you are looking at. LNTE is in the same sorry state as the others you mentioned -- they are just a few months behind them. I don't think, due to the low volumes, that LNTE can get and stay back over $1.00 in the next 30 days.

      SAPE is not the only one I'm hoping to profit on. Industry consolidation is the guidance for the summer.

    • ex_speculative_investor ex_speculative_investor Mar 18, 2002 10:13 PM Flag

      Thanks for the LNTE tip. I am negative on this space and negative on most management teams in this space. The cash situation seems compelling though. I need to do some real research.

    • I see death, thats you plan. wait till fish and co die, then profit on sape.

      I don't like sape b/c of value. they have the same risk business risk as every one elese only a higher multiple.

      steer clear of viant and scnt. me thinks there be a c11 coming soon for scnt. and viant has laid off so many people that they have to HIRE 20% in order to BREAK EVEN. sucks to be them.

      As for razf, that remains to be seen. The cash situation is bad over there, but fish still has some legs. I think that if the recovery comes for fish and they don't miss this quarter they should be fine. if not then they have to start looking for an A/R financing facility, if they haven't already. I think that's the next phase for fish.

      Take a look at LNTE. The do the same as sape, fish, and all the others but with a MUCH better valuation. they are close to profit. after this round of restructuring they might break even in q2. they have 1.42/share cash and only trading at .92. i wonder if they are buying back stock.

      now may be the time to take some profit on sape. the run in sape will not continue till business looks better, eg top line rev growth. but i am indeed happy that the stock market was logical to bid this stock up in the wake of the layoffs which was long overdue.

      just my thoughts on this sector...

      --
      doob

    • After you take your profits on TYC - feel free to post -- I am casually looking for a reshort window on it.

      I saw the merger announcement and I'll look at SLAM with a new (more detailed) light, but much can happen between now and May 2002 - I'm always a skeptic (it's a character flaw) -- nothing is a slam dunk (nice pun BTW). Maybe the thing for you to do is spread a little fear on that board and see what happens to the stock price.

      You seem to be a little heavier on the risk side than I am -- that's ok -- it's just the difference in our ages. I probably should risk more and try to retire earlier.


      Today looks like a down day across the board -- we probably will both lose today. Probably concerns about IRAQ.

      I think we talked about this and I'll apologize if I repeat myself. Hopefully, you are not trading any NASDAQ's below a buck. I doubt it based on the companies that you talk about, but I did hear directly from NASDAQs analysts that all of the delisting notices were sent to companies trading below a dollar from 1/2 - 2/14. All of these companies will get their delisting letters on 5/15. I'm waiting for some media coverage -- should be interesting.

      I understand and agree with your sentiments towards inept business development folks. Unfortunately, it's an industry wide problem and not unique to any one company. There have been times when I have gift wrapped work for them and they still have screwed it up. I used to travel to client sites and do proposal work for one or two weeks(between projects) to lock in work when I worked for a previous company. The good thing is then I could pick and choose my projects. The bad thing is that the business development people were the biggest idiots on the planet and traveling with them and explaining everything to them was just painful. I can be effective at that kind of work and there are always opportunities, but no way -- I'd completely lose respect for myself.

      Anyway -- enjoy your day -- I've got a project proposal to write -- looks like a day to lock some profits or maybe sell and rebuy em later in the day or week. Good luck.

    • I am glad we clarified the TYC situation and that you covered before losing any money. It is nearing my original price target, so I may soon look to take profits. The SLAM deal is a slam dunk -- in your hasty review you must have missed that, in spite of the fundamentals and technicals of the company sucking, the company has accepted an offer to be acquired. This is a simple arbitrage play where you are paid handsomely to wait for the deal to close.

      Maybe we should stick to SAPE on this board, but I figure since we seem to almost always have it to ourselves, why not discuss a few of my recent ideas elsewhere in the market. I like the push back you provide becuase so few people I know are willing to disagree with me.

      I must admit to laughing when I read your last post; it does seem that we have just turned the credibility and alias arguements against each other.

      Anyway good luck with your day job. I am enjoying immensely the freedom of the last week and half since my long awaited separation from the inept business development folks.

    • You know -- the sad thing is that we have the whole board to ourselves today.

      I think that you are making money -- I know that I am making money.

      Maybe it's time to cash out here and do some damage elsewhere. Nah .... I'll just wait this out and give it more time --- there is some more upside potential.

      Isn't it funny that you are using the same arguments (credibility and aliases) that I used against you :-) Maybe we are both wrong.

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