Here are some interesting facts.
last 9 days:
SAPE dropped from a high of 95 1/2 to
69 (28% decline - if it wasn't for the 20 point jump
on the 4th the decline would be more like
SCNT dropped from a high of 77 3/8 to 42 1/4 (45%
SAPE's volume has been less than half of it's average
volume - today's trades looked like mostly small trades
(couple of hundred on avg).
SCNT's volume has been
more than it's average volume with today being just
less than 3 times the avg. volume.
SAPE's outstanding shares are held by 281
29.9% of SCNT's outstanding shares are held by 124
What does this mean?
- That most of the SAPE
trades have been by individuals who got nervous or had
to cover margin calls (especially the last couple of
thousand shares traded between 3:55 pm and 4pm).
That institutions are recognizing the value in SAPE's
track record and strong earnings performance.
That SCNT has a $3B market cap (still overvalued for a
company that is not making a profit) and SAPE has a $4B
market cap (still undervalued for a company which has
proven strong earnings).
- Most of all, I'm
encouraged by the large institutional holdings which
reflects the trust that the street has in Jerry &
One more thing to note, if institutions are holding
and not selling, and Jerry & Stu own appx 20% of the
outstanding shares, that only leaves 30% (17.5MM shares) with
the majority of that owned by senior insiders who can
only trade 2 weeks/quarter. No wonder this puppy is so
From your posts, I can assume...
* You are a
SAPE employee w/ an underwater strike price
are currently working on a project that is beyond its
* You need sleep
* You hang at the
'Loft WAY to often and consume too many Dirty
* You see Jerry in his Carrera and think "That
should be me"
My heart bleeds for you, my friend.
Instead of "Livin' la vida loca' you living "Nightmare at
A thousand options just don't
go as far as they used too!
Dont you realize that Sapient is a company in the
internet space with real profits? How many companies can
make that claim? Every day another firm comes out with
a positive assesment for SAPE's near-term. If you
are short this stock (and I know you claim you
aren't), you'd better think twice before getting swollowed
up in the pre-earnings spike.
It's very simple: SAPE will be over $100 as soon
as wall street recovers it's confidence - by this
fall maybe $175.
(2 weeks ago SAPE went from
$71 to $95 in one afternoon - anybody who has watched
this stock knows how fast it can climb)
The market will decide. But if everyone got
trained on the "skill du jour", then why have IT-savvy
folks been in such high demand for so many years? I
think billing rates will only climb, as big companies
would much rather outsource this stuff than build it.
As long as the e-builders are in-line with the value
the customer places on the work, they can continue to
grow their billing rates. Big 5 companies have done it
If you rationally examine the track
record, I don't see how you could really question the
fundamentals. It's not like they have sat on their laurels and
let the growth happen by itself. It has been
aggressively managed, and they have added management beyond
Stu and Jerry to control the growth.
I'll take a consistent 19% OM quarter after quarter
over one blowout quarter and then negative Gross
Margins the next any day.