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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • raptorrhett raptorrhett Feb 25, 2009 4:21 PM Flag

    Are we expecting another dist. cut?

    Any opinions on the probability of another dist. cut? If so why or why not?

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    • NORM!

    • I can't disagree. To me it should not matter, as I do not fully trust the management. But to those who do, it does matter. I am providing a public service here. :-)

      As for the management, it's not that they are necessarily bad, dishonest people, but rather it's a part of their jobs to try and present things in a better light, even if they screwed up or situation outside of their control is turning from bad to worse.

      Look at GE's Immelt. Just a month ago he said they wouldn't cut. Today they did. Would it be better if he said back then "Oh my god, thing are getting really hairy. We are going to cut the dividend" ? Probably not...
      Same goes for a number of other CEOs. I am just afraid PWE is in a similar situation.

      Just for the record I am long PWE, over 10% of my non-retirement portfolio is in it. But I feel it is a more responsible stance to present things as a glass half empty, especially in uncertain times like these.


    • I know that was your point, which is correct as far as it goes, but it makes no difference if you do not trust management. They COULD had said $35 or $10 or $1,000 but they lied so you can't use that information. There is NO point to it at all.

      Say you go to your favorite grocery store for coffee and they are out; you note the price of $2.50/Lb. Then you go to another store and they have coffee but the price is $5/Lb. You complain to the manager that your favorite store is selling coffee for just $2.50/Lb. The manager asks why you didn't buy it at the lower price and you say, "but they are out of coffee." "Well, when I am out of coffee, I only charge $1/Lb," says the manager. You can't use information if you don't trust the source, so discussion of that information is senseless --- there is no right or wrong. Technically you were right, but it doesn't matter because the information can't be trusted, according to you.

    • It looks like they will go to .17 and hold there unless the bottom really falls out.

    • My point that the $35 figure you were citing, was, in fact, incorrect, even if you trusted the PWE mangement with your {fill the blank}.

    • Roll out the barrels, we'll have a barrel of fun ... great beer singing song of yesteryear --- that's what we should be doing instead of guessing what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month. Whatever will happen, will happen. In the meantime, fill up your beer mug and the economy will look better, then get better.

    • Then what's your point, if you don't trust management? Anything they say, $45, $35, whatever, doesn't mean anything. The dividend will be cut regardless of what oil does beyond today, because you cant trust management (if that is the premise, which you say it is). And fear reigns supreme.

    • Operating costs in Q4 08 were 13.22 with royalty of 8.90 total about 22 barrel

    • Today, PWE gets $55 and $101 Ca. a barrel

    • I am not arguing where average 2009 oil price is going to be. Just clarifying where it needs to be, so PWE can maintain the distribution, as per management, which, by the way, I do not fully trust.

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