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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

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  • lasvegasfreddie lasvegasfreddie Nov 25, 2009 1:53 PM Flag

    Ya'll see that $20 yet ?

    I dividend reinvest and feel these low prices give me more shares. A few observations:
    1. Heard presentation from the major New York energy advisor and he noted that oil is in long term trend up because of lack of drilling to make up for declines and improved demand picture due to China and India and other developing nations. He shows that world excess supplies by the summer of 2010 will be equal to what they were in 2007 (about 1 million bbls a day of excess capacity). Can enough say $100 /bbl plus this summer.
    2. Natural gas will stuck in a $5-7 range for several years. It may trend up lightly because of oil prices and increasing demand in electrical genration and transportation as they rely more heavily on natural gas.
    3. The marginal cost of production for most shale wells is about $3-4, so at $7 gas shale producers will do well. The only issue is that states will increase rolyalites to shore up their budgets which may drive prices up beyond $7 in the long term.
    4. They feel that many companies like PWE will be taken over in the long term as it is cheaper for the majors to buy them than to deelop new oil supplies.
    5. Another analyst that I respect stated that PWE and other smiliar trust stock price is so much below NAV (NAV will increase with increasing oil prices) that he feels that it is extremely safe investment because of the returns and eventual buy out which will be multiples above their current price.

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