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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • infinitidrivr infinitidrivr May 4, 2013 11:12 AM Flag

    PWE for the long haul

    Western Canada has the third largest oil/gas reserves in the world. PWE has by far the largest land holdings in this space. It has a solid balance sheet with book equity well in excess of debt. It has cash flow that exceeds the dividend by a comfortable margin. It has peripheral land holdings that could further cut debt substantially. And should they cut the dividend in half(a highly unlikely event but just hypothetically), you might want to look at the global market potential for its products(pipelines and refineries both in East and West Canada), the probably approval of Keystone XL(and if not, other pipelines get built). Natural gas will be increasingly important as a fuel for electricity and transportation, and consumption is already growing rapidly...and look at the traffic jams of autos in the U.S. The U.S. can't even build a roundabout inside of 1 year so perhaps your grandchildren might have public transportation(in the vast majority of the country). Compare this to a stock market that has gained on average 2% the last 15 years. Canadian investments afford inflation protection, protection against a US currency collapse(not an unlikely event) and a 5-11% dividend while you wait.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I do agree with this. Our debt in the states is now at 16.7 trillion and our congress has not been successful in reducing it by a substantial amount. Hyperinflation is their only way out. What happens when the US hyperinflates? Canadian dollars, land, energy, all goes up. way up and your dividends will be paid in a currency from one of the strongest banking systems in the world. I bet those Cypriots wish they had bought Penn West shares instead of Greek bonds.

    • WorkingCenter: Mr. Spinergy has had a second hard look at the numbers and now has concerns. Infinitwit has been bucking for the Head Cheerleader spot for a long time, and he feels victory is within his grasp now. Spin had enough integrity to admit that perhaps his conclusions should be looked at again. Infinitwit has no such integrity, and is not burdened by any need to be truthful or accurate. He is playing a psychological game with himself, trying to erase the knowledge that he made a big mistake and to convince himself, and others, that he has been right all along. The simple immutable truth is that he as been wrong ever since he has been posting his #$%$, but he cannot allow himself to see that, let alone have the intestinal fortitude to admit it on the board, or even hint at an apology to those posters who have been proven right over and over again.

      There is comfort in numbers, and the more people he can convert, the more people he can lure into his camp and accept his pipedream fantasy about this stock, and the more people he can get to drink the Koolaid with him, the better and stronger he feels.

      He has yet to disprove any FACTUAL statements made by me or any other poster on "the other side" but merely reverts to his hypocritical norm by accusing the shorts of uncivil behavior while he and a few other rabid longs engage in the same behavior.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • this is nonsense! nothing but dreams, wishful thinking, incorrect facts - are you paid by the compnay to post this #$%$.?

    • Once again the self-proclaimed guru of economics has shown what a clown he is. Forget the sentences that can be construed as "opinion" (misguided as as they are) and just look at the FACTUAL ERRORS.

      1st: For an "MBA" you're pretty dumb. In the last 15 years, 1998-2013, the "stock market" as you call it (I'll use the DJIA for ease of reference) has increased 7,092 points, for a gain of 90%, or average 6% per year. If you go back 16 years, the gain has been 8,552 points for a gain of 133% or an average of 8.3% per year.

      2nd: The company's own financials call you a liar. It DOES NOT HAVE A SOLID BALANCE SHEET. If it did, it would not have LOSSES PER SHARE for the LAST 6 QUARTERS. It would not have to BORROW money or sell assets to pay the dividend.

      3rd: What do you mean "should they cut the dividend" is a forgone conclusion that THEY WILL CUT IT. They have no choice, Mr. MBA. The numbers don't lie like some posters.

      4th: Great. Let's get some pipelines built and get this stuff shipped out. By the time it happens, production in all OTHER areas will have increased, we will be at LOWER prices for boe and they will EARN LESS and SPEND MORE to get it out of the ground. They can't make money at current prices, how will they make money when oil is CHEAPER?

      5th: "Canada provides inflation protection"??? When you can FACTUALLY PROVE this, you can say it. For now, consider that the price of this dog has gone from $43 to $9 in 7 years for a net loss of $34 per share. It has paid a total of $26.52 in dividends in that same period. EXCELLENT INFLATION PROTECTION! The investor who has sat on this pig has PAID HIMSELF A DIVIDEND out of his own pocket, AND has managed to lose NET $7.48 per share. And isn't adjusted for inflation or opportunity loss.

      In short Infinitwit, you continue to post complete, utter, unprovable BS. You're desperately trying to convince yourself that you made the right choice. The EVIDENCE shows that you didn't. Idiot.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 3 Replies to ohio_whitebear
      • The financial analysis you make is incorrect in many respects but i believe you think your right.The stock market. Numbers need to be adjusted for losses and timing of sale and clearly arwnt net 90 per cent or anything liike it .stocks and funds averaged about 12 per cent until last recession but now those numbers are hugely depressed..what your missing is the real book value of thos stock is 18 not 9 .the psychology of the mkt is holding at 9 but the value is clearly there and probably much greater considering the oil and gas rich lands owned or controlledYour wrong about the divi it is on the table and havrnt missed since 10 or 11 per cent your investment will replace itself in about 7 yrs without selling the stock.9 forever, dont think so not its hostory.

      • There you are, lying again. The balance sheet is very strong. Those of us who bought at 12 and sold at 27 or 30 and are now buying at 9 do very well. If you don't sell now, you lost zip.

      • My ideas are beyond the grasp of caveman bear who strives so hard to believe his rants and insults, will abet his short term trade mentality, which competes vs. the likes of Goldman Sachs and Hedge Funds. As for indices, the NASDAQ is 30-40% below where it was in the year 2000; the Dow hit 10,000 in early 1998....get out the compounding tables. And, of course, there were the two 50% hits to the overall market since 2000. I'm projecting 5-11% dividends going forward and the underlying value of PWE; Canadian trade and budget patterns; value of oil/natural gas. Not going to argue with Caveman Ohiobear.

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