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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • punbr punbr Nov 7, 2013 12:50 AM Flag

    Maximizing shareholder value? That would be true if they told us to sell months ago.

    This company has one of the ugliest charts around. Big question is can they really turn it around at some point or does it keep grinding lower and lower over time? I have a small position and am willing to add if we ever see it begin to turn up convincingly.

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    • There's plenty of historical evidence on the devolution of CanRoys to point the way on this one. While people want to say "this one is special", it's not. It's just taking longer to run it into the ground. The metrics are the same for PWE as they have been for the past casualties of the Halloween Massacre, some went fast, others took more time. The simple fact that they plan to do a $2B asset sale in the next 2 years should tell you something. I doubt very much if PWE will go bankrupt, but I have no doubt that you will not see higher share prices either (excluding the normal spikes and dips). The best case scenario is that it will only drop a little more as assets are sold off, then level off as a smaller company pumping less production (just look at their production rates over the years...straight down, and that is what leads the price). IMO, it's going to end up as PGH. It will hit a point where it won't go any lower and can't go any higher. That would be the time to buy it if you absolutely positively just have to buy higher risk Canadian oil plays. Personally, comparing the various risk factors, I would allocate that portion of my investment portfolio to COSWF or SU or CNQ.

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