this may explain the pause. we are way ahead of silver right now!
The bull market in precious metals is just starting, the main stream of investors has not started to buy yet. Joe Public will start buying late like in the tech & dot-com bubble that burst in 2001. Too much trouble, debt & pending inflation in the world. You could not be more wrong. Silver will go way pass $50 in the future, gold $1000-oil $100 to $200 due to the war mess in Iraq. Read your history!
Fascinating. You put a lot of things together. I have this general picture of a world that has awakened to not liking the U.S. dollar as its standard. Too much arrogance or too much debt, maybe, or just not enough trust. Some of the world audience is sneaking out the exits now and the rest doesn't see them, but they do wonder what else is out there. Then they glimpse some people leaving, and they want out and they can't all get out at the same time, so the dollar wants to dive.
The only thing keeping the dollar from taking that dive is the nagging question of where out is. Is it the yuan? The euro? For some, maybe, but who knows where China goes and the Europeans have their own problems. No, in times of hell and high water, people want things - commodities - which is probably why the U.S. is on such a buying binge.
People want something tangible to save, and are thinking more of precious metals in that light. Modern variants like the goldmoney.com you mention can overcome "Gresham's Law," which is that with commodity money, bad money drives out good. So precious metals are more feasible as a world monetary unit than they used to be and that is why they are appreciating against the dollar and other currencies alike. Given the scarcity of silver and its current low price, I expect it to appreciate the most.
To answer your question, my model is simple obsercation, nothing quantitative...
Lot's of things were very strange and converging last week especially how the Dow was reaching for 11,000 while the NASDAQ broke 2270 briefly...at the same time as gold rising on a breakout since mid-November and holding above that psychological $500 barrier...in what universe does that happen?
M3 will no longer publish $$$ supply as of next March...very suspicious (this of course announced earlier than last week). Lots of speculation on this topic but very coindindental...hmmm.
All currencies finally broke away from gold
Commodities trending UP
Energy prices and stocks in long term trend UP
There is a massive short position in US equities from hedge funds, though they have been there awhile and were in early....I think they know something is coming.
Inflation talk popping up everywhere...watch CNBC Asia if you have access on cable or satellite.
Politicians talking down inflation, house sales and prices still booming...massive US consumer and foreign debt and increasing every day...something has got to give there soon.
Central banks now net buyers of gold...two new gold ETF's...new Dubai exchange for gold...new exchange for gold in China...
LOT's of new developments and odd things happening in gold but not in mainstream media yet. Digital gold i.e. GoldMoney.com. Also oil next year to be traded in non-US dollars.
Something BIG and unusual is going on with gold now, some new precedent and pattern is coming forth and all the clues are out there.
It all tells me inflation will increase significantly, maybe soon. All these gold and other clues (many others not stated here) are saying this loud and clear.
That said...I am not an economist, but a recent stock bull (15 some years) turned stock bear and now a metal, energy and commodity bull.
There will be stock rise fake-outs and lots of talk about how the economy and US$ is strong, dump sell-offs in gold and all sorts of ploys to convince the market all is fine, but I will not believe it anymore. I am guessing it will be slow at first (stocks slip, gold stairsteps up) then something will crack and everyone will wake up and see what has been there since Nov 2005.
Then, I went into the drug store over the weekend to buy razor blades and my jaw dropped and I yelped as they are now $11.99 for 10 (plus tax)...four bucks more than earlier this year...that was the final straw. AND now they keep the razor blades behind a plastic shield that alarms when you open it up so the clerk knows you took one!
So I refer to post November 2005 as the "New Razor Paradigm".
Then again, maybe I have it all wrong...
All the above just my opinion....except the razor story which is factual and probably still on videotape.
. . . and its nothing but "Buy, buy, buy." http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=slw
Geopolis2000, could you explain what you meant when you said "I think a long term pivot point in the world economy occurred just last week...and it will only be apparent in retrospect years from now." I've been getting real uneasy about the world economy in general and the U.S. dollar in particular, but what happened last week? Thanks in advance and for your model, too.
I too rolled most of my IRA into gold, silver and uranium stocks. I used the site below to start my research. You might find it helpful. It shows over 750 stock quotes for gold, silver and uranium (both US & CAD) on one page. It takes about 10 seconds to load since it is pulling up current stock prices.