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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • wgfur wgfur Apr 14, 2006 12:15 PM Flag

    Ponzi Scheme ?

    Like most of you here I think silver is going up, way up, in the medium to long term based on supply and demand.

    I also know that short term prices are controlled by the cot traders and the hedge funds who play the futures markets. For years these folks have made a killing by causing sudden price reversals when it is least expected. Who knows when, but silver could drop 3 dollars from here before you can say - sell.

    If silver drops suddenly this stock would be cut in half. Know body knows if or when this will happen, but the longer silver does not correct the more likely it is to correct - hence the saying, be fearful when others are greedy.

    Folks calling for a double from here thinking this stock could get to a 4 billion market cap in the near term, are being a wee bit greedy.

    My big problem with this stock and the reason I shorted it this week, is it looks like a ponzi scheme.

    The last deal they made was trading paper (stocks) for silver at 1/3 the current market value. The producer who took the other side of this deal gets stocks now and agrees to sell their future silver production at 1/3 current value.

    Why would they do this, well because they think the stock is a good deal. Why is the stock a good deal, well because they think others will want to make the same deal and cause the stock to go up some more.

    What do I know, but SLW looks strong on stock promotion and weak on business fundamentals.

    Most of the longs justify their trades on silver fundamentals, but by holding or buying here they are putting their faith in paper deals that look suspect to me.

    Whatever they have done has been great for the stock price so far - who can argue with that, but don't forget holders here are just like the folks who bragged about holding Nortel stock at $120, or the current home owners who think they are rich as their home is worth twice what they paid for it. Until you sell, you make nothing.

    Have a happy Easter holiday.

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    • lol. ME TOO!! three days is almost unbearable. who'd ever think that i LOOK FORWARD to mondays.........?

    • You responded to a post from c0ntang0 to me. We were talking about statistics. I don't know who you were talking to or about. But I kind of doubt you were talking about stat--as I said they usually don't smell.
      Now I have seen good statistics and bad statistics but not smelly ones.
      crdnlau

    • c0ntang0 wrote:
      "When I was working, I lived for the week-ends. Now I hate them because the markets are closed"

      I got a laugh out of this - the same thing is beginning to happen to me!

      I am thinking about the implication of the correlation you found between spot prices with SLW hot on heels. Perhaps there are institutional size players using spot prices to determine direction and timing of trades in SLW, but have been taking profit recently. If so, the disparity between "global" and "local" markets might also explain the recent failure of your indicator.

      I am enjoying your posts tonight.

    • "My big problem with this stock and the reason I shorted it this week, is it looks like a ponzi scheme."
      =======================================

      You just made the biggest financial mistake of your entire life.

      Dr. Hydride

    • I think you linked your reply to the wrong post. c0ntang0 and I were speaking of statistics. One usually doesn't characterize them as rotten or have an odor.
      crdnlau

    • I think that is great to read--that someone enjoys being stretched. It is how we stay young.
      Good luck with the .dll. It really sounds interesting.
      BTW--I am a researcher so I'm well aware that causation is one way. If it were two way there would be no statistical way to separate cause and effect. Most of my work is done with SPSS because the data is behavioral and attitudinal but two friends of mine work with time series as their work deals with stock market behavior--mostly options.
      Anyway good luck.
      crdnlau.

    • The past several days have been tough to day-trade in SLW. The value of SLW relative to silver has dropped by about 10%. My indicator doesn't work well in such conditions. I'm working on it.

      I litigated birth injuries.

    • on murphy, adrian & jesse.....they've been calling silver right on and have a longer track record

      murphy's adrian sez silver to the moon.....
      "Bill,
      This can be released in Midas report.

      I just updated my proprietary analysis for silver. It is astonishing!! The anomaly has been confirmed as a new trend and silver is set to explode. It is in uncharted territory. The move will surprise many.
      Cheers
      Adrian"




      http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/Silver.jpg

    • By "correlated" I mean that when the PoS and PoG go up (down), there is a strong tendency for SLW to also go up (down). The causation is one way - that is, a move in SLW has no causal effect on PoS or PoG. These facts are intuitively obvious to everyone.

      I am constantly refining my indicator. I am in the planning stages of writing a .dll for Tradestation that will perform the linear regression analysis for me. There are a number of different ways of performing such an analysis, and I have an appointment with a Professor at the local university to discuss the issue in detail. My training in statistics/mathematics never reached beyond the undergraduate level. But by having real-time linear regression analysis available to me, I can calculate the best entry/exit positions for intraday long and short scalps. This is a serious business, and I enjoy devoting the time to my indicator. It stretches me intellectually, which is what I like most.

    • Semantics aside if you take the chart I posted and shrink the time frame down to 2 days which is its smallest time frame you can slide the bar back and forth to see any two day period in SLW's history versus silver / gold. In that time frame I do not see many moves that are close enough to trade on. But thats me. If nothing else SLW has been not moving with silver as of late . Quite the contrary. I guess I am missing something in your post? Of course plotting stocks by the minute seems extreme to me. Can you really catch the moves and act on them that fast to generate that much more profit then trading day to day or week to week or cycle to cycle? At some point won't you get caught on the wrong side of a swing and have to wait anyway?
      Your trying to make me remember my algebra aren't you? LOL. I see what you are saying in regards to the direction of the moves they will always regress to follow each other. I do not see how that can work in timing short term moves. I think what you are doing is way beyond me that is for sure. As I have stated before it is tortoise and hare stuff and I am no hare. I find the easiest way to make money on SLW is to buy it, hold it until the PM trend changes, then sell it. You should try golf, sounds like you have lots of time on your hands. Retired at 46 from what? Did you litigate?

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SLW
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